From Mac Bank comes some interesting details of Iranian shipping movements:
Another vessel has likely exited the Persian Gulf
The Nancy, a NITC owned/operated VLCC believed to be used as floating storage for Iranian crude oil in the Persian Gulf, was last seen off the coast of Fujairah—the east coast of the UAE—in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel ceased sending a signal from its AIS transponder on Sunday, making its exact location unknown. The Nancy is fully laden, indicating that over 2 million barrels of crude oil are onboard.
The vessel is likely heading to Asia, although its exact whereabouts and intentions are unknown. Its AIS transponder had consistently been sending a signal on a daily basis until Sunday’s movement. Nancy had been anchored/moored in the Persian Gulf since early April.
Yet another vessel also likely in Asia
The aptly named Noble, another vessel previously believed to be used as floating storage in the Persian Gulf, was last seen off the coast of Fujairah on August 8th . Since then, no signal has been received from its AIS transponder. The Noble is also fully laden, although with a smaller draft compared to the Nancy. This may indicate a cargo of about 2 million barrels are onboard.
Assuming a two-month timeframe for the round trip to East Asia, these two vessels would combine for an increase of 70 thousand BPD of crude oil on the market.
Starla – the first vessel sighted leaving the Gulf – is heading back to Iran
The Starla, the first vessel we reported exiting the Persian Gulf the day after the agreement was reached between the P5+1 and Iran, reappeared yesterday in the Indian Ocean and is now approximately 200 miles east of Sri Lanka. The Starla’s draft is 11.5 meters, indicating that it successfully discharged its crude oil.
Previously, the vessel was last seen in the Strait of Malacca sailing east with a listed destination of Shanghai, and ceased sending a signal on July 28th. The length of time to travel from Malacca in Malaysia to Shanghai is approximately ten days, indicating that the Starla could have completed the voyage to Shanghai.
More barrels ending up on the physical market The consistency of the pace of Iranian exports, currently at approximately 70 thousand BPD, will weigh on current physical market fundamentals. While the increase in exports may never show up in official data, the immediacy of the exports may alleviate the burden on the physical market in early 2016, as floating storage levels get drawn down. Still, given current supply/demand dynamics and increased concerns regarding the sustainability of emerging market demand growth in the second half of 2015, this increase in exports can have a negative domino effect on other oil producers, particularly West Africa.
I retain my $40 target for Brent.
