Is iron ore in a “bull market”

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Some days financial media is maddeningly daft, at the AFR:

Call it the world’s most unlikely bull market. Iron ore advanced for a third day, taking gains to 25 per cent from a six-year low even as the world’s top shipbroker predicted renewed losses.

Ore with 62 per cent content delivered to Qingdao climbed 4.6 per cent to $US55.89 a dry metric ton on Wednesday, according to Metal Bulletin. That was the biggest increase since July 9. While the gain of more than 20 per cent from the July 8 low met the common definition of a bull market, prices remain 22 per cent lower this year.

Call it the world’s dumbest story. Is this a bull market:

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Or this:

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No and no. Simply rising 20% does not constitute a “bull market”. This is a bear market rally, no more, no less.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.