Goldman warns on iron ore

From Bloomie:

*IRON ORE SEEN DROPPING EVERY QUARTER THRU 2Q 2016, GOLDMAN SAYS

Prices seen at $49/ton in Q3 2015, $48 in Q4, $46 in Q1 2016 and $44 in Q2 2016, bank says in report.

“We expect seaborne supply to increase sequentially over the next two quarters and to gradually overwhelm the weak demand from Chinese steel mills,” bank says

While housing starts in China bounced back and infrastructure has overtaken property as largest end-market for steel, improvement during 2H 2015 may not be strong enough to support iron ore prices, Goldman says.

As usual not bearish enough. And believe it or not in Q3 2016, Vale unleashes the 91 million tonnes S11D, the greatest and one of the cheapest mines of the entire boom.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.