Capital Economics: Iron ore headed for $30s

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From Bloomie comes Caroline Bain at Capital Economics:

“There will be a sharp move down in the second half, when people realise that the apparent shortage that they’ve seen in the second quarter was temporary,” Bain said on Friday. “There will be a renewed bounce of investor sentiment turning against iron ore. It could certainly go down below $US40.”

…”The spike up is quite a dangerous phenomenon because it’s given producers hope,” Bain said. “The underlying picture hasn’t changed, which is one of oversupply. I think producers will live to regret the price rebound.”

 Better late than never!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.