Melbourne housing market strengthens

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By Leith van Onselen

Victoria’s Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure (DTPLI) has released April’s data on the number of housing transfers and mortgage lodgements/discharges, which revealed that Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) housing market has continued to strengthen after originally appearing to have peaked in November.

According to the DTPLI data, the volume of housing transfers in Victoria fell by 7% in April, but more importantly – since the data is not seasonally adjusted – transfers were up by 17% over the year and look to be rising at a faster rate (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_7447 May. 26 15.59

Both mortgage lodgements and discharges have also taken another leg up (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_7448 May. 26 16.00

Mortgage lodgements were down 11% in April, but were up 22% over the year, whereas discharges were down 8% in April, but were up by 23% over the year.

Subtracting the number of mortgage discharges from lodgements produces the next chart:

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ScreenHunter_7449 May. 26 16.02

In the year to April 2015, the total number of mortgages in Victoria fell by 5,082, down from a record 6,263 mortgages lost in the year to July 2014, with the ratio of lodgements to discharges now at 97.8% (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_7450 May. 26 16.03
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The rebound in Melbourne’s housing market is confirmed by RP Data’s daily house price index, which shows a re-acceleration of annual house price growth since late-March (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_7446 May. 26 15.55

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.