China’s domestic raw iron ore production is falling, latest data is 105.1Mt/mth for Mar-15 vs 120.9Mt pcp. This measure we do not see as particularly timely nor reliable, but the direction is as we expect with prices under pressure. We believe that most of the shuts required from here in the iron ore market will need to come from high-cost seaborne rather than domestic sources.
Down 12.5% year on year. Grade adjusted that would be roughly 320 million tonnes of local production. Precisely what is in the MB model.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
