Shuffle of the iron ore zombies

Advertisement

The AFR is talking up the latest round of Atlas restructuring talks:

Atlas Iron has asked secured bondholders to consider receiving equity in lieu of interest payments, while contractors would operate for minimal cost in exchange for compensation when – and if – the iron ore market improves.

Where’s the upside for bondholders? The iron ore rally isn’t going to run much further. We may see others but the great likelihood is that prices will at least halve from here. As it does, more iron ore mines will go belly up and the global market of cheap second hand mining goods will turn into a flood. For example, Caterpillar sales have fallen every month for 28 months:

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:
Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.