The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released housing finance data for the month of February, which registered a 1.2% seasonally-adjusted fall in the number of owner-occupied finance commitments over the month:
The result disappointed analysts’ expectations, who had expected a 2.0% rise in owner-occupied finance commitments in February.
The number of owner-occupied housing finance commitments excluding refinancings fell by a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% over the month to be tracking 7% above the five-year moving average level, however, January’s figures were revised upwards sharply (+3.8%). The number of owner-occupied commitments were also down 4.3% on February 2014 and are well past their peak (see next chart).
The average loan size fell by 3.2% over the month to $337,200, but was up 7.0% over the year. The below chart, which shows the series on a 3-month moving average basis (in order to smooth volatility), shows the explosion of average loan sizes recently.
First home buyer (FHB) commitments rose by a non-seasonally adjusted 10.7% in February but were down 8.5% over the year. Their share of total loans also edged up to 13.7%. The below charts show the situation. Note, the ABS has recently revised up its FHB estimates:
Investor finance commitments fell by 3.4% in February but were up 10% over the year (see next chart).
Nevertheless, investors well and truly remain the key driving force in the housing market, with investors hitting an all-time record high 49.1% share of total finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in the year to February 2015 (see next chart).
