Macro Morning: Risk awwwn

by Chris Becker

Friday the 13th was not a bad night after all on risk markets, with a surprisingly good German 4Q GDP lifting all boats amid continued optimism of a Greek debt resolution soon.

The 1.6% yearly growth in German economy sent the DAX to a new record high, above 11000 points for the first time:

Chart DAX30, W1, 2015.02.15 22:03 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

This has been a huge recovery since the October 2014 low and up 10% since the mid January breakout. Where does it stop? The FTSE too built on its gains, up 0.7% as momentum maintains a positive setting:

Chart FTSE100, D1, 2015.02.15 22:04 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

Peripheral European markets did even better, with the Eurostoxx index up nearly 0.9%, which fed into a continued optimism in US stocks, the S&P500 up 0.4% to just below 2100 points in the cash market. It has hit a new daily high and broken out above resistance with a positive outcome in Greece surely to lift it higher:

Chart SP500, D1, 2015.02.15 22:01 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

SPI futures are pointing to solid gains this morning on the ASX200, up around 30 points or so with oil stocks to benefit from crude’s continued volatility and the banks lifting everything up on yield/capital flow.

In the FX world the US Dollar Index (DXY) finished flat with no change, the Euro finishing the week just below the 1.14 handle and remaining in a sideways pattern:

Chart EURUSD, D1, 2015.02.15 22:11 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

Pound has broken free of the 1.54 handle after inflation in the mother country falls to 0.5% and the BOE holds fire on future rate hikes (like every other major CB out there):

Chart GBPUSD, H4, 2015.02.15 22:12 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

The Australian dollar remains under pressure, trying to break out above 78 cents and its downtrend from the late January failed breakout:

Chart AUDUSD, H4, 2015.02.15 22:14 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

Yen has fallen back to the 118 handle on the USDJPY pair after trying to break free of the 120 resistance level – the deceleration here is complete as it remains just above local resistance for now:

Chart USDJPY, H4, 2015.02.15 22:15 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

In commodities, a small rally in iron ore and copper is dwarfed by the now usual 2-5% daily moves in oil, with WTI up nearly 3% but again I’m not excited until a break above $54USD per barrel:

Chart CL-OIL, H4, 2015.02.15 22:17 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

The data today will focus mainly on the Japanese 4Q GDP print this morning with nothing else on the radar, apart from Aussie new motor vehicles and the US having a long weekend.

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