by Chris Becker
I love me some charts! The RBA Chart Pack is out this morning, published each month, this is a treasure trove for the visualisers out there.
Here’s my take on a select few:
Major partners, India and China GDP growth is moderating back to pre-GFC Western levels (i.e mid single digits):
While the West hobbles in the 1-3% range stalling:
GDP is not a very good measure of prosperity, so let’s look at unemployment and inflation. First US, Japan and Europe, with the latter a big fail:
Compared to Australia, where the trend is significantly up – why is it so?
Staying in Oz, if you think the country is “growing about on trend” then you’re probably confused about global warming to. This is a downtrend:
With absolutely no concerns about inflation:
Or a wages breakout:
So ignore those “mad” economists who consider deflation a non-risk and rate rises just around the corner as just that….
One of my favourites, showing the impact of private debt on the household. Chaps, if it wasn’t for lower rates we’d be in double digit unemployment now:
Although that “peak” in debt looks like a new breakout is brewing, so yes any lower rates and all bets are off. Rock and hard place again for the RBA, but they’ve been so far behind the ball it doesn’t matter now, regardless of Smoking Joe Treasurer’s next (final?) Budget.
Sydney house prices to the moon:
Speculators, I mean investors, about to take over owners for borrowing:
To the businessmobile and investment is tanking, but still above historical levels:
We’re still sitting on the edge of the mining investment cliff:
But its only started, as engineering and machinery investment tanks:
The Federal Budget will blow this out next year as the deluded MYEFO (the shrinking bars to the right of the line) thinks it can be arrested:
As State Budgets go deep into the red on the iron ore collapse, and soon LNG for the beleagured QLD Newman goverment:
As our public debt levels go up and up, but still at very low levels in comparison with the past and of course private debt:
Terms of Trade is reverting to mean as the mining boom goes bust:
This is what happens when you purposely structure an economy around speculative commodity prices:
But isn’t that a pretty chart for the (mainly foreign owned) miners! To the moon Gina, I mean Alice!
Even with huge volumes and a once in a century mining boom, the current account deficit (CAD) continues to blow out as net liabilities surges. Nothing like borrowing from the rest of the world to buy your own houses off each other:
Now to interest rates – low, lower and nothing are the order of the day:
Except Russia!
Bond yields continue to fall to the floor (and in some cases to the next “ceiling”):
As local interest rates continue to fall:
But the banks are doing just fine and dandy – what a wonderful gig – high double digit ROE, almost zero risk of going under, you can fib to the regulators that you have enough “capital” and still make a motza as your net interest margin falls:
That’s all, I’m off to lunch.