by Chris Becker
The ABS just published the November housing finance figures and recorded a surprise drop in both owner occupied and investment housing, with expectations of a lift (+1.7%) squashed:
Trend estimates |
Seasonally adjusted estimates | |||
Nov 2014 |
Oct 2014 to Nov 2014 |
Nov 2014 |
Oct 2014 to Nov 2014 | |
Value of dwelling commitments(a)(b) | ||||
| ||||
$m |
% change |
$m |
% change | |
Total dwellings |
29 225 |
0.6 |
29 003 |
-1.0 |
Owner occupied housing |
17 248 |
0.5 |
17 282 |
-0.2 |
Investment housing – fixed loans(c) |
11 978 |
0.9 |
11 721 |
-2.2 |
Number of dwelling commitments(a)(b) | ||||
| ||||
no. |
% change |
no. |
% change | |
Owner occupied housing |
52 253 |
0.0 |
52 079 |
-0.7 |
Construction of dwellings |
6 291 |
0.2 |
6 213 |
-2.6 |
Purchase of new dwellings |
2 840 |
-0.5 |
2 812 |
1.3 |
Purchase of established dwellings |
43 123 |
0.0 |
43 054 |
-0.5 |
| ||||
(a) Includes refinancing (see Glossary). | ||||
(b) Excludes alterations and additions. | ||||
(c) Excludes revolving credit. |
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The devil is in the detail, here are the key points (emphasis added below):
- In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance was flat in November 2014.
- In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings was flat and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.2%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 0.5%.
- In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 11.6% in November 2014 from 11.4% in October 2014.
Slight uptick in a depressed FHB market, a flat non-investor market and new construction slipping as the boom-let in construction slows down at end year.
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The Aussie dollar was lukewarm on the print, no real change, still hovering above 82 cents. I’ll have some updated charts and analysis later.