Housing finance drops in November

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by Chris Becker

The ABS just published the November housing finance figures and recorded a surprise drop in both owner occupied and investment housing, with expectations of a lift (+1.7%) squashed:

Trend estimates
Seasonally adjusted estimates
Nov 2014
Oct 2014 to Nov 2014
Nov 2014
Oct 2014 to Nov 2014

Value of dwelling commitments(a)(b)


$m
% change
$m
% change
Total dwellings
29 225
0.6
29 003
-1.0
Owner occupied housing
17 248
0.5
17 282
-0.2
Investment housing – fixed loans(c)
11 978
0.9
11 721
-2.2

Number of dwelling commitments(a)(b)


no.
% change
no.
% change
Owner occupied housing
52 253
0.0
52 079
-0.7
Construction of dwellings
6 291
0.2
6 213
-2.6
Purchase of new dwellings
2 840
-0.5
2 812
1.3
Purchase of established dwellings
43 123
0.0
43 054
-0.5

(a) Includes refinancing (see Glossary).
(b) Excludes alterations and additions.
(c) Excludes revolving credit.
Value of dwelling commitments, Total dwellings
Graph: Value of dwelling commitments, Total dwellings
No. of dwelling commitments, Owner occupied housing
Graph: No. of dwelling commitments, Owner occupied housing
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The devil is in the detail, here are the key points (emphasis added below):

  • In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance was flat in November 2014.
  • In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings was flat and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.2%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 0.5%.
  • In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 11.6% in November 2014 from 11.4% in October 2014.

Slight uptick in a depressed FHB market, a flat non-investor market and new construction slipping as the boom-let in construction slows down at end year.

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The Aussie dollar was lukewarm on the print, no real change, still hovering above 82 cents. I’ll have some updated charts and analysis later.