Its post Christmas…..
Time with family and friends has been wonderful, but…..
You’ve had far too much to eat and drink and you’ve spent a day dealing with kids needing advice on everything from Primal Carnage Extinction to engineering with wooden blocks or brushing the hair of a doll. You have cooked or cleaned and dressed in nice clothes to appear relatively civilised for people you only meet at Christmas, and you have been polite to relatives and friends – keeping your opinions to yourself in the interests of Christmas harmony as they sat there and talked up the joys of an investment class you despise or pushed an ideological view you consider flawed in a social setting where you focused on being nice.
Now. You know that at some point the delights of ‘Miracle on 34th Street’ wear off once you’ve seen it more than 7 times and that even ‘Home Alone’ has its limitations when repeated, and that the Sydney-Hobart is more about participation than viewing. You may be OK to drive partners or friends (and possibly children) to the Boxing day sales but you’d rather wait for them than join the milieu and just take it easy. Maybe somewhere relaxing, with the cricket on in the background perhaps, or some easy listening. A little something to cogitate on, and from there the world has a different rhythm.
Here at MacroBusiness we have the something for you to cogitate upon. The MacroBusiness Cup. Three sections of questions on what is likely to happen with the Australian economy, the global markets, and the domestic and international political scene over 2015 to test your punditry, divination, analysis and conjectural skills. And the winner will be awarded the 2015 MacroBusiness Cup this time next year.
The MacroBusiness cup holds liquids just like this one……
But looks more like this ……
The course (a point for each)
Australia
- January: AUD at COB (AEST) last day of trade in January 2015
- February: RBA overnight rate at Feb 28
- March: Iron Ore price at end of last day of trade in March
- April: Unemployment rate released by ABS in April (for March)
- May: Budget Deficit forecast for FY 2015-2016 in May Budget unveiled by Treasurer
- June: What will the May reading (released in June) of the Westpac-Melbourne Consumer Sentiment Index be?
- What will be the high point of the investor share of residential mortgages in Sydney according to ABS data?
- What will be the year on year residential real estate growth figure for Perth in August?
- GDP for 3Q (ABS)
- September: RBA overnight rate at September 30?
- What will foreign investment into Australian residential real estate be at 9M 2015 according to FIRB?
- Debt to disposable income @ 3Q 2015 according to the RBA Chart pack
- Number of disposals of inappropriately purchased property forced by FIRB before December 2015?
- Will Unemployment reach 7% by 1 December 2015?
- What date with the NZD reach parity with the AUD?
- On what date will an RBA official, speaking officially, refer to the possibility of an AUD/USD with a ‘6 handle’ – an AUD of 0.699999 or less?
- What will be the median price for Brisbane residential real estate as of 3Q 2015?
- Proportion of Sales to First Home Buyers for the year to September 30, 2015?
- What will be Australia’s net migration intake for the 2015 year according to ABS data?
- Will Negative Gearing for existing residential real estate remain unchanged as of December 1 2015?
Global Markets
- Brent Crude (1 month contract in USD) @ close of last trading day (AEST) in March 2015
- Brent crude (1 month contract in USD) @ close of last trading (AEST) day in November 2015
- Gold @ close of last trading day (AEST) in March 2015
- Gold @ close of last trading day (AEST) in October 2015
- USD/RUB @ close of last trading day (AEST) in May 2015
- EUR/USD @ close of last trading day June 2015
- AUD/USD @ close of last trading day in September 2015
- NZD/AUD @close of last trading day in September 2015
- USD/JPY @close of last trading day in September 2015
- US Federal Reserve rate @ June 30 2015
- US Federal Reserve rate @ November 30 2015
Politics
- What will be the low point of Tony Abbott’s approval rating according to Newspoll? (+3 pts: When?)
- Will Tony Abbott face a leadership challenge in 2015?
- Will Tony Abbott still be Prime Minister on December 1 2015
- Will Joe Hockey still be Treasurer on budget night 2015?
- Will Joe Hockey still be Treasurer on December 1 2015?
- What will be the largest gap between the ALP and the LNP in the Newspoll (2 party preferred) in 2015? (+2 points: When?)
- Will Bill Shorten say a word about house prices in 2015?
- Will Bill Shorten have a clear policy committing Australia to carbon trading in 2015?
- Will either side of Australian politics (at [shadow] cabinet level or higher) raise the issue of housing affordability and propose measures to address it in 2015?
- Who will be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2016 US Presidential election?
- Who will be the Republican Party nominee for the 2016 US Presidential election?
- Who will win the 2015 United Kingdom parliamentary election?
- How many seats will UKIP win in the 2015 United Kingdom parliamentary election?
Entries in by Jan 4