The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research (RMR) consumer confidence index fell by 0.2 points (-0.2%) in the week ended 14 December to 110.2, to the lowest level in five months and well below its long-run average reading of 113.2 (see next chart).
ANZ chief economist, Warren Hogan, claimed the “sticker shock” from the weak national accounts figures for September, along with negative headlines about the federal budget, had weighed on consumer’s moods:
“The key question now is whether this drop in confidence is sustained and slows consumer spending in the crucial Christmas shopping period”…
“This bears close watching in coming weeks and will be important for the momentum the economy will take into 2015″…
The below chart plots the most recent Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index, which plummeted in December to a three-year low, against the latest ANZ-RM Consumer Confidence index. Note the large divergence between the two measures:
Based on these measures alone, Christmas may very well disappoint Australia’s retailers.
