From the AFR:
Li Xingchuang, president of the government-linked China Metallurgical Industry Planning Association, said steel consumption would peak at 740 million tonnes in 2017.
This is well below the 1 billion tonne forecasts of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group, who all broadly believe Chinese steel consumption will not peak until beyond 2030.
“I really don’t understand how the big mining companies made that forecast,” said Mr Li at a Platts steel conference in Shanghai.
Group think, my man.
To be honest, I reckon this forecast is optimistic. Li sees 1.7% growth next year to 834 million tonnes and 850 million tonnes as the peak, but only if exports keep growing.
My own view is that the peak will come next year as exports are choked off by protectionism.
Either way, sub-$50 iron ore is inevitable.
