Daily iron ore price update (Hebei)

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Paper markets were mixed. Although Dalian 6 month future were firm, they are still pricing in the mid $70s for January delivery once taxes and charges are removed. 12 month swap weakness is a concern. These markets have been way oversold yet the working off of excesses is taking the form of a sideways grind not a bounce, illustrating muted support. The spread to spot is very wide even allowing for the premium on Qingdao prices and will close one way or another. If the swap market doesn’t pick up, spot will fall. Underlining the physical versus paper bifurcation, the rebar average rally continued but futures fell sharply.

Texture comes from Reuters:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.