Who to trust when everyone is an iron ore expert

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Some years ago I opined that the lack of coverage of the iron ore market in the Australian press was an extraordinary oversight by the nation given it’s huge importance. I argued that it should be on the front page of every paper, every day. Well, now it is. Be careful what you wish for!

The sudden proliferation of iron ore experts is worthy of a post to help you determine who actually has some cred and who does not. On a daily basis you will see myriad stories at formerly oblivious newspapers quoting anyone in sight (with the exception of the terrible and shadowy MB of course). These stories are reliably short of judgement by journalist and editor.

There are also now regular posts at the usual range of stock-picking newsletters – Motley Fool, Money Morning, Eureka Report, Share Cafe etc. Money Morning was certainly bearish on China well in advance but has been pushing iron ore equities as contrarian plays far too early. Motley has flip-flopped most of the way down. Eureka’s Tim Treadgold and Share Cafe’s Glann Dyer have been far too bullish and the guy making the least sense is Adam Carr, though that hasn’t stopped the ABC giving him a huge platform. The Kouk is another 11th hour convert with a checkered history of reading the importance of the crash.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.