Auction clearances rise

ScreenHunter_19 Mar. 13 13.12

By Leith van Onselen

The national auction clearance rate jumped sharply over the weekend on the back of big rises in Sydney and Melbourne.

According to RP Data, the national weighted average preliminary auction clearance rate was 72.2% over the weekend, which was up 5.5% from the 66.7% preliminary clearance rate reported last weekend. Sydney’s clearance rate rose by 4.9% to 81.1%, whereas Melbourne’s rose to 71.0% (last weekend 64.1%). Brisbane, which typically only has a small number of auctions, experienced a decline in its clearance rate to 47.0% from 52.1% the weekend before. Overall auction volumes (2,004) were also up strongly on last weekend’s 1,675.

ScreenHunter_3928 Aug. 31 21.40

The trend in the national clearance rate looks to be rising, and remains well above the levels recorded during the 2011 and 2012 housing bear market and slightly above the same time last year (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_3929 Aug. 31 21.40

As usual, the other data providers reported stronger results but on smaller samples.

The Real Estate Institute of Victoria reported a preliminary clearance rate of 76% on 717 reported auctions, which compares to the 71% preliminary clearance rate on 613 reported auctions last weekend.

For Sydney, APM reported a preliminary clearance rate of 82% on 449 reported auctions, which compares to the 83% preliminary clearance rate on 319 reported auctions recorded last weekend.

51 Responses to “ “Auction clearances rise”

  1. mark777 says:

    Bubble or not this isn’t showing any signs of slowing, Sydney in particular still has a couple of years in it still, all they do is use the gains from one property to acquire the next borrowing at 90-100%, St George is a bit more relaxed then CBA, have no choice but to join them!!

    • It has already slowed and if you think riding the final melt-up of an illiquid asset class makes sense then I’ve got bridge I can sell you.

      • flyingfox says:

        MB seems to be getting more and more random persuasions posts from what seems like regulars in another blog with property in the URL.

      • mark777 says:

        OK fine I won’t buy just like that reassurance

      • reusachtige says:

        LOL! Youse guys keep getting housing wrong! It’s boom baby boom!!

      • Bull Market says:

        Punters here have been wrong for years…. … but when the housing market actually falls by say 5% (as it will at some point in time) there will be a chorus of punters here saying I told you so…. but how about the 20-30% they missed on the way up!

      • flyingfox says:

        @BM What if they fall 10%, 15%, 33% or 55%?

        Edit: And you are not counting the 2-5% (depending on rates) it costs to hold the property…

      • StatSailor says:

        I know some O/S investors who recently bought some property with Opera House views. I’ve spoken to them, and if we could find a decent looking bridge showing classic design of the 1920s – something a bit like New York’s Hell gate bridge, maybe – they’d be happy to pay top dollar for it to be moved somewhere where it could be seen from their lounge room windows. The two together would look really awesome, they reckon.

        Let’s get in front of them, and see if we can make this happen!

      • kevintxu says:

        Hi HnH, could you elaborate on what metrics points to the fact it has already slowed? Would the spring high selling season impact the slowing?

      • Bull Market says:

        @ flyingfox

        Since you guys have been calling this crash, prices are up more than 50% – go figure!

        As I said, house prices will fall one day and you will be right for a very brieft moment. And the fact that all you guys are waiting for this crash to happen so you can pile in suggests that when it does, the trough will be a lot shallower and shorter than you would have hoped.

      • Tea Merchant says:

        @bull market…….there will be no recovery for another lifetime. Better prepare for a long wave bear market in houses.

        “Paris is already crashing – Canada thanks to Ex Goldman’s Mark Carney will crash as will all the other highly inflated property markets for example NYC, CA etc, no lessons learned from 2008.
        The FT reported this week that £122 billion of property in England and Wales is held through companies in offshore tax havens where ownership is difficult to trace. A portion of these funds is likely to be “laundered” money sanctioned by a detached political culture, which created our zero regulation regime – in part motivated by the UK’s 2015 elections. The property bubble’s contribution to the “GDP” figures is significant. As far as “Cash” buyers – much of the cash is; 1) The mainstream media talking heads illustrating their ignorance and 2) Sleazy property brokers “Hyping the markets higher with misinformation”. Many foreign banks offer mortgage products on London property and just because it’s not evident does not mean these properties are not highly leveraged elsewhere.”

      • flyingfox says:

        @BM

        50% up and then 50% down are not the same thing for starters.

        And the fact that all you guys are waiting for this crash to happen so you can pile in

        Guess again ….

  2. foreigner says:

    I am a long time every-day MB reader, but I am slowly starting to accept the reality that property is a religion in this country and the only “investment” in many people’s head. We here seem to be a very small minority.

    When a petition so well executed as this one

    https://www.change.org/p/senator-nick-xenophon-scrap-your-dangerous-and-self-serving-plans-for-first-home-buyers-to-use-superannuation-for-housing-deposits-and-instead-push-for-the-real-solutions-to-housing-affordability

    Can only get 650 signatures but a petition to scrap Jetstar 8 dollars booking fee over the internet get over 100 thousand… I look in shock as to why people are not rallying on the streets to demand sanity in the housing market …. I mean are we really that happy as a society to pay a million dollars for houses that are falling apart but cannot see that that is the reason that we cannot afford anything else ???

    • Byron says:

      Until the majority don’t own not much will change. Because when the next bust comes a new generation will jump in with glee. Then start championing ever increase in prices. Round and round we go.

      • Leviathan says:

        Everyone I know owns investment properties – most of them down towards Point Cook and outer Geelong.

        Can’t lose.

        This is a brilliant strategy especially when you look at the crippling housing shortage which Ireland faced – until the market turned – then there was this astonishing, inexplicable over supply.

        Imagine that – people with one, two or ten (not uncommon – Nick Xenephon, “lets let kids use their super to invest in properties” owns ten) investment properties – all of a sudden have debts of half a million on each investment property that are now worth $300k….

        An awful lot of supply is going to hit the market in an awfully hard way when things turn.

      • Mining Bogan says:

        Leviathan, I just had four days down around those areas. Geelong. Portarlington. Ocean Grove. Everyone just talked about bloody housing. Except for one lady who owned a manufacturing business in Geelong. She was wondering if it’s worthwhile retooling or just cutting the losses and running. Every time we spoke about the dodgy two-three year future of the area the conversation was interrupted with bloody housing talk.

        Seems the people who provide jobs see storms a’brewin’. Those who speculate see rainbows and bluebirds of happiness. It’s not going to be pretty.

      • StatSailor says:

        Until the majority don’t own not much will change.

        It’s coming. Not fast enough, but it’s coming.

      • LordDudley says:

        Mining Bogan…

        Don’t be so negative! Housing has detached from the rest of the economy… and don’t forget all those foreign buyers too. As long as everyone has the ‘will to awesomeness’, everything will come up aces for those who levered into housing.

        For all the doomsayers and disaffected lefties here, all I can say is ‘Haters gonna hate!’.

    • reusachtige says:

      Everyone wants in dude, no one wants to be friendless!

    • Mining Bogan says:

      Think we might have had forty thousand rallying in the streets yesterday.

      • The Lorax says:

        I looked carefully on the TV news. I didn’t see any housing-related signs.

      • foreigner says:

        Congrats !! That was in Melbourne wasnt it ? With that kind of numbers it would be impossible to ignore by the media…. was there any coverage today on the news ?? Any links ??

      • The Patrician says:

        +1 The Commercial TV news editors are clearly on acid.

        40,000 people march in 30 cities across Australia gets zero commercial TV news coverage.

        Ladyboys playing elephant polo in Thailand…… now that is news.

  3. God says:

    Hey Henny Penny how’s it goin ?

  4. OMG says:

    The only thing not selling in my area are second hand vk holdens

    The clearance rate for my suburb is 95%, not that I’m complaining about values being up 20-25% in a year but there is seriously something not right about a very average two bedroom unit selling for $200k more than it did 18 months ago

    Who is buying? Grey haired folk and Chinese, boomers getting levered up on cheap credit, and the amount of rebuilds and extensions happening in my area is amazing, never seen anything like it, I wouldn’t be surprised to come home and see that someone has renovated or rebuilt my letterbox in the hope of turning a profit when they sell to another specufestor

    In my old suburb of Glen Waverley four hoses sold over the $1.4 mil mark on the weekend, wtf, seriously it isn’t that great there

    • Rich says:

      OR the place that went for $3.2M in GW not long ago.. I mean it was a luxury house but I doubt it would get the same money in Camberwell… Very strange.

      • OMG says:

        Glen Waverley is unique, mainlanders arrive with suitcases of cash ready to buy whatever they can

        I noticed this in 2006/07 when the black 7 series BMW brigade moved in and started buying up all they could, now as the numbers have swelled it is a frenzy there

        I don’t see it stopping anytime soon as the normal fundamentals don’t apply to these buyers

    • LordDudley says:

      With the departure of Holden, those VK commies are going to become a desirable investment.

      After all, they won’t be making any more of them :)

    • ericskeric says:

      I want to downsize and am considering buying an old home for demolition and then subdivision. Have been checking recent sales and have been amazed at price increases in last 12 months. 800 – 850 sqm blocks which used to sell for $600k to $630 k now going for $725k minimum. Crazy stuff because my suburb is just average. I don’t know who is buying buy looks like owner occupiers rather than developers or investors.
      I was thinking this bubble was losing steam.
      It looks like I was wrong.

      • OMG says:

        Not losing steam at all, are you in Melbourne? What area are you looking at buying in?

        In my area it is probably 2:1 owner occupier v investor, most owner occupiers are mainlanders that knock down a nice old clinker brick and put up a 43 sq metricom home, the investors are locals

        The demand from mainlanders is now going out as far as Wantirna so I’d expect good size blocks to keep rising in value

    • Ozquoll says:

      My 87-year-old nana is thinking of moving from her 3br house in Glen Waverz to a retirement village. Seems like she will get enough money for a very speccy retirement village indeed…..

      • StatSailor says:

        Don’t worry – the retirement village spivs will find a way to make sure she isn’t burdened by an excessive bank balance.

      • OMG says:

        If her house is in the Glen Waverley School Zone and she waits another six months then she may have enough to buy an entire retirement village

  5. Leviathan says:

    To sum up the current situation….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VopC0g5UViM

  6. TheRedEconomist says:

    Classic drip feed behaviour in Sydney town

    This was across all channels during our prime time news.

    Not once was there a question why only such a limited amount of lots were released.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/the-hills/large-crowds-camp-overnight-at-stanhope-gardens-real-estate-agents-for-the-ponds-land-sales/story-fngr8i1f-1227041681878

  7. LordDudley says:

    Go Aussie Go!

    Looked like you were flagging for a while, but my little housing ripper hasn’t let me down!

    If it keeps going like this, I reckon our little battlers are going to find a new level beyond ‘full retard’. This is some epic zen sh*t.

    I reckon if Australians all concentrated hard enough at the same time on making Uluru levitate, they may well achieve it.

    No betting against property in Oz any more; that’s for losers, naysayers, and disaffected lefties. Australians are like Nemo or Xeno or whoever he was; that guy from the Matrix who can bend it to his will.

    The future in Oz is going to be awesome!

    • StatSailor says:

      Maybe Yoda?

    • OMG says:

      So true

      Insert that picture of the guy pulling the rabbit out of a hat

      I think surely prices can’t go up any further, I mean wage growth is flat, then bang prices up 10%

      Prices at nine times incomes, do I hear 10? 11 over here to your sir, 12 times incomes anyone? Sold!

      • jimbo says:

        They’ve beared no resemblance to wages for over 10 years, why would they now?

      • OMG says:

        True, I guess what has changed is the % with interest only loans, folks liquored up on debts

        Have two mates with 2+ investment properties and Int Only loans they tell me they have no interest in paying down the mortgage and intend to just sell it for double what they bought it for in five years time

        I guess the only difference between us and the USA is that our leader isn’t playing golf 365 days a year

      • LordDudley says:

        That plan will work really well as long as Australia doesn’t ‘turn Japanese’.

        If too many people bring forward consumption based on debt in the expectation of inflation, what happens then?

        Interesting times…

      • StatSailor says:

        Lord Dudley,


        If too many people bring forward consumption based on debt in the expectation of inflation, what happens then?

        What if they already did that circa 2010?

      • OMG says:

        Yeah I think that is what we have been doing since 2001, just buy, whatever the price, then NG it for a few years and sit back and relax as the price goes up

  8. boomengineering says:

    At this stage it looks like Sydney will be the last to fall fueled by the influx of outer staters which at the same time will drain those states, making them more vulnerable earlier

    • LordDudley says:

      Sydney will be the biggest to boom, which will fuel the rise of the other states, making them richer earlier.

      It’s all upside!

  9. squirell says:

    get in to the market and you can be like this guy at your next bbq

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHo2pXO_XAI