New home finance stuck on high plateau

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By Leith van Onselen

Today’s housing finance data for May suggested that buyer demand for newly constructed dwellings remains strong, despite a flattening in approvals over the past five months (see next chart).

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The number of finance commitments for new dwellings (i.e. construction plus new) rose by a seasonally-adjusted 1.1% in May to be up 7.8% over the year and tracking some 15% above the 5-year moving average level (5YMA). Despite the current ‘boom’ being smaller than the post-GFC episode (which was fueled by significant first home buyer stimulus), it does at least appear to be more enduring, which is good news (see next chart).

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Looking at at the state-by-state breakdown, which is presented below on a rolling annual basis since it is not seasonally adjusted, shows that new home finance commitments appear to have topped-out in New South Wales and Western Australia. However, this is being offset by Victoria, Queensland and South Australia where the number of commitments are still rising (see next chart).

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Overall, another solid report for the housing construction industry.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.