Here is Tony Blair from his website arguing that his Iraq War did not give rise to today’s ISIS insurgency. I am no Blairite but agree with some of the points made. My main issue is the selectivity of the argument. It’s impossible, very misleading or grossly naive to make a values-based stand on Western machinations in the Middle East. The various policies at various times have very obviously been driven been national interests, realist policy and resource politics not any loftier goal.
A great example is the simple fact that after years of rancor over nuclear armament, Iran and the US now find themselves with shared interests. Over the long haul there is no evolution or revolution sort in the Middle East. The whole “clash of civilizations” thing is mostly guff as well. It’s all about the black stuff in the ground.
I give you, Tony Blair…
The civil war in Syria with its attendant disintegration is having its predictable and malign effect. Iraq is now in mortal danger. The whole of the Middle East is under threat.
We will have to re-think our strategy towards Syria; support the Iraqi Government in beating back the insurgency; whilst making it clear that Iraq’s politics will have to change for any resolution of the current crisis to be sustained. Then we need a comprehensive plan for the Middle East that correctly learns the lessons of the past decade. In doing so, we should listen to and work closely with our allies across the region, whose understanding of these issues is crucial and who are prepared to work with us in fighting the root causes of this extremism which goes far beyond the crisis in Iraq or Syria.
It is inevitable that events in Mosul have led to a re-run of the arguments over the decision to remove Saddam Hussein in 2003. The key question obviously is what to do now. But because some of the commentary has gone immediately to claim that but for that decision, Iraq would not be facing this challenge; or even more extraordinary, implying that but for the decision, the Middle East would be at peace right now; it is necessary that certain points are made forcefully before putting forward a solution to what is happening now.
3/4 years ago Al Qaida in Iraq was a beaten force. The country had massive challenges but had a prospect, at least, of overcoming them. It did not pose a threat to its neighbours. Indeed, since the removal of Saddam, and despite the bloodshed, Iraq had contained its own instability mostly within its own borders.
