Tourism deficit improves on falling bogan exodus

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By Leith van Onselen

Yesterday’s release of the overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for March finally contained some positive news for Australia’s tourism industry, with the tourism deficit (short-term arrivals less departures) continuing to rebound after hitting the lowest level on record in December 2013, with the ratio of annual arrivals to departures also rebounding from its December 2013 low (see below charts).

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In the month of March 2014, the number of tourism arrivals fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, whereas the number of tourist departures fell by 3.7%.

In the 12 months to March 2014, the annual number of arrivals increased by 7.5% relative to the corresponding period of the prior year, whereas departures fell by 2.4% (see next chart).

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In the year to March 2014, 8.80 million Australians holidayed overseas over the year – a 145% increase on 10 years ago (3.59 million). However, this was partly offset by a record 6.54 million inbound tourists arriving in Australia over the year – a 36% increase on a decade ago (4.82 million).

As always, the bogan hotspot of South East Asia (particularly Indonesia and Thailand) remains by far Australia’s favourite holiday destination, receiving 227,800 visitors in March, or 32% of Australia’s total departures over the month – albeit well down on December 2013’s record. This was followed by Oceania (21%), the Americas (12%), North East Asia and North West Europe (each 10%):

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By contrast, the most foreign visitors to Australia came from NE Asia (mostly China), although this too has fallen from last year’s highs, but still accounted for 24% of arrivals in March, followed by Oceania (21%):

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.