Plummeting mining vacancies signals capex cliff

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By Leith van Onselen

The number of job vacancies in the mining industry have plummeted nearly 23% in the past nine months, according to the latest DFP Mining and Resources Job Index, which provides month-end data for March.

The Index dropped 1.9% from February to 77.34 for the month of March 2014 and the number of job vacancies has now fallen 22.66% in the last 9 months. Moreover, permanent employment opportunities have declined the sharpest, down 30% in 9 months (see below chart).

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Queensland job vacancies have declined the sharpest, down roughly half from June last year (see next chart).

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While job advertisements have declined across the sub categories, they have been particularly sharp in exploration and coal mining (see next chart).

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Although DFP has put a positive spin on the results:

While there is no immediate sign of an upward trend, the industry remains confident that on the back of investment in Oil and Gas, there is growth on the horizon with $180 billion committed to 7 new projects, which is encouraging for both Queensland and Western Australia.

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It’s fair to assume that the employment situation across the mining industry will worsen materially over the next few years as Australia goes off the mining investment cliff:

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[email protected]

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.