From India’s Business Standard:
Iron ore exports from India are likely to exceed 25 million tonnes in 2014-15, a growth of over 60% compared to last year. In 2013-14, iron ore exports clocked 15.13 million tonnes, a decline of 19% over the previous year.
The growth in exports this year would mainly come from Goa, where the Supreme Court has allowed auction of around 15 million tonnes.
The Apex Court is also expected to pave way for resumption of mining in the current year. The Court is set to pass an order on the recommendation of CEC for a cap of 20 million tonnes production per annum on April 15.
In 2014-15, the projected growth in exports is mainly due to the movement starting from Goa. If the total 15 million tonnes of iron ore is sold and evacuated from Goa, then India’s exports could go up by at least 15 million tonnes by the end of the current fiscal to take the tally to 30 million tonnes.
“On the contrary the delay in the auctions and the upcoming monsoon season is likely to delay the exports from Goa. Also, the restricted movement of iron ore from Odisha to Vizagwould be another hurdle in increasing the exports this year,” said Prakash Duvvuri, head of research, OreTeam Research.
However, exports of low-grade iron ore from Goa might be affected if the Chinese government strictly enforces its recent environment legislation that prevents usage of low grade iron ore in steel making. According to experts, the high silica and alumina content in iron ore requires steel mills to use excess coal and energy for conversion into steel. So, the steel mills might avoid importing low-grade ore with Fe content below 46-48%.
“The new pollution control regulation from China will not be applicable to ore from Goa because traditionally Goan ore is above 48% Fe. Export of ore from other countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Iran to China might be affected because these countries export very low-grade iron ore,” Duvvuri said.
Glen Kalavampara, secretary, Goa Mineral Ore Exporters Association said Goan exporters have been by and large exporting 50% and above grade ore. So, the Chinese regulations will not affect their chances. “We have exported below 46% in the past but not much. The exporters have entered into long-term supply contracts with Chinese mills and they may not be impacted much,” he said.
Most sell side models have between 20 and 30 million tonnes of Indian ore returning this year. Looks like they’ll be right.
