RP Data weekly Australian house price update

ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 20 20.55

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 27 February 2014, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, fell by 0.28% (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_1434 Feb. 28 07.36

Values fell in all major capitals except Melbourne (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_1435 Feb. 28 07.36

Values are down 0.08% so far in February, with all major capitals except Sydney underwater:

ScreenHunter_1436 Feb. 28 07.37

Values are up 1.12% so far in 2014, driven by big gains in Melbourne and Sydney:

ScreenHunter_1437 Feb. 28 07.39

Over the past 12 months, home values have risen by 9.65% at the 5-city level, led by Sydney and Melbourne (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_1438 Feb. 28 07.40

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven mostly by strong gains in Sydney (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_1439 Feb. 28 07.41

Values are up 4.8% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney, with Perth and Melbourne values also up but the other major markets still in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_1440 Feb. 28 07.42

However, major capital home values have now gained 13.2% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_1441 Feb. 28 07.43

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17 Responses to “ “RP Data weekly Australian house price update”

  1. Peter Fraser says:

    It’s been interesting watching house prices in Brisbane rise while the index falls.
    I assume this is December data causing an adjustment.

    • Who knows. It’s a volatile index. Plus there’s the leading-lagging thing that Louis Christopher uncovered last year. There’s no point getting excited about short-term movements.

    • It’s always interesting watching you spruik.

      • Peter Fraser says:

        And there I was thinking that you had gotten over your unhealthy interest in my views.

      • Ino says:

        @PF Oh – it’s like a sprinkler – you get used to it spouting… uh – water – but every now and again your attention is drawn to it when a bit of air in the pipe makes its way out with a loud succession of pops.

      • Peter Fraser says:

        Thanks Ino – it’s your profound wisdom that I come here for.

        You never disappoint me.

    • DrBob127 says:

      It’s been interesting watching some house prices in Brisbane rise while the index falls.

      I fixed that there for you Peter. You can’t possibly know the price of all houses for sale/sold in Brisbane. You may ‘see’ a lot as a mortgage broker, but really what one person can ‘see’ will only ever be a tiny fraction of the market.

      Nice try though

  2. b_b says:

    I like read what peter writes. Very balanced, courteous, and unlike the vast majority here, usually right.

    • Ino says:

      So if the majority here is wrong and only Saint Peter is often right, fair and balanced, why are you here at all?

      • b_b says:

        Some people (like Peter) make really interesting points.

        MB bloggers do a great job rounding up the local business new, so its an efficient way to get up to date.

        And I usually post to correct some of the myths that get regurgitated here (Banks having to borrow overseas to fund credit growth, the risk of capital flight, Australia has a property bubble etc).

      • flyingfox says:

        @b_b Once again, are you employed by the RBA?

      • b_b says:

        “Once again, are you employed by the RBA?”

        No.

  3. Gramus says:

    Very interesting…

    Will Chinese demand abate and expose Australia’s housing market to our weakening economic fundamentals?

    Take the Chinese out of the picture and Australian housing might get pretty ugly pretty quick.

  4. churlish says:

    I’m expecting it to get to 20% p.a. in Sydney before it pops.

  5. jimbo says:

    I thought the top end was going gangbusters again?

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/realestate/news/aussie-tennis-star-selling-off-beach-home-for-55-million/story-fni0cly6-1226839563604

    He bought one for $3m about 11 years ago, still can’t get it back and the second, looking for a $1m gain over 9 years, if it sells.

    • Not in all cities/regions… I live near a lot of high end property in Adelaide (beachside). Sits on the market for many months in most cases & suspect most of it gets pulled, not sold.