As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released labour force data for the month of December, which registered a 0.1% seasonally-adjusted increase in the headline unemployment rate (still 5.8% due to rounding). The result was in line with analysts expectations.
Total employment fell by a seasonally adjusted 22,600 jobs, with full-time jobs falling by 31,600 to 8,067,700 offset by a 9,000 increase in part-time employment to 3,561,800. However, aggregate monthly hours worked rose by 0.6 million hours to 1,634.0 million hours.
The participation rate also fell sharply (-0.2%) to 64.6% to the lowest level since April 2006.
Despite the growing population, total employment is at its lowest level since March 2013 (see next chart).
With all the jobs growth part-time and full-time jobs retrenching (see next chart):
And the proportion of workers in full-time jobs at its lowest level on record:
All mainland states, except South Australia, have added jobs over the year, although jobs growth is obviously weak (see next chart).
And the Southern States remain the weakest (see next chart).
The state seasonally-adjusted figures are notoriously volatile and subject to a big margin of error. As such, the below chart shows the ABS’ trend unemployment rates, which shows Western Australia with the lowest unemployment, Tasmania and South Australia with the highest, and Victorian unemployment rising:
One slight positive from this release is that the aggregate number of hours worked rose ever so slightly in December, but was up by only 0.3% over the year:
The below chart, which tracks the changes in hours worked on a trend basis, shows a mixed bag across the states, although most markets are weakening:
The weakening labour market, combined with Australia’s aging population, has seen the employment-to-population ratio and the participation rate fall to their lowest level in 8.5 and 6.5 years respectively in trend terms (see next chart).
The below chart summarises the annual change in the key employment aggregates:
Put simply, this is a poor release. The Australian labour market remains very soft, with jobs growth still well below the level required to absorb population growth (with all of the growth in employment over the past year part-time), and both the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate continuing to trend down.
