2014 iron ore price forecast

Welcome to 2014! It’s good to be back.

Find below the iron ore price table for January 17, 2014:

iron ore table

The charts. 12 month swap has broken down but is not yet terribly bearish technically. On the other hand, spot has broken support at $131 and has no obvious support until $110:

iron ore price chart

Dalian six month futures are sliding relentlessly, now pricing around $117 in six months, which is consistent with 12 month OREX at $112:

dalian futures

Rebar average is also sliding and is stuck in a deeply unprofitable range for steel mills illustrating serious overcapacity:

rebar

Let’s get straight to it. Iron ore is in trouble again. The question is how much trouble? Are we seeing the leading edge of the big price falls long expected on the great supply deluge? Or are we seeing just another Chinese inventory cycle?

My answer is both. The remarkable story of last year’s iron ore strength around an average of $130 was impressive. But one should always recall the long term. Reversing the perspective, despite Chinese steel production jumping a spectacular 9% last year, iron ore is still down $50 from its 2011 highs. This says to me that we are long passed the leading edge of the structural iron ore correction. Cyclical forces look increasingly high risk as well.

Entering 2014, on the structural front, there are two major facts to consider. The first is Chinese steel demand. As diagnosed through the second half of last year, the present round of Chinese growth is not a sustainable private sector growth cycle. Rather it is a lurching sequence of stimulus and tightening measures as imbalances vie with economic mandarins for control of the economy.

The two trillion yuan stimulus package that rescued growth for much of last year is easing. The infrastructure pipeline is emptying:

sada

The strong surge in real estate sales last year is also abating as various monetary and fiscal nips and tucks add up, though we may see a decent follow through this year in housing starts.

But, basically, the billion dollar question for this year’s steel outlook is: will China’s planned rebalancing be allowed to proceed or will the temptation to kick the can with more stimulus prove irresistible once more? The realists will say ‘inevitably’. And in that event, iron ore will have a better time in the second half of this year than the first is shaping up to be.

The other structural consideration for iron ore is the degree of supply capacity coming online in the next six months.  Versus last year, another 100 million tonnes of capacity will be in operation by mid year via completions at BHP’s Jimblebar, Rio’s Pilbara 290 and Fortescue’s Kings expansion.

It’s worth revisiting the old supply and demand chart:

iron ore supply and demand

India is also beginning to return, if only slowly. From Credit Suisse:

india iron ore

Moreover, Rio’s plans to move forward on Pilbara 360 will see supply continue to ramp up (it could bring another 30-40 million tonnes to market by year end). God help us, Roy Hill appears to be going ahead as well, with a completion date next year for another 55 million tonnes, though that is very aggressive. Vale also starts to deliver its expansions next year.

There are two mitigating factors. The first is high cost Chinese supply will be displaced in the shakeout. But the process is certain to be more slow and irrational than markets expect, just as it has been in the two coals. The second mitigating factor  is the market power of the Pilbara cartel, which is substantial. But with each passing year more supply and suppliers weakens the major Australian suppliers price making power.

In terms of market structure, then, supply is upon us and will keep coming and the growth drivers of Chinese steel demand are sputtering. I expect long term global demand for seaborne iron ore to keep growing in the low single digits as the global recovery grinds along. But as the consumer of 60% of global iron ore, the critical question is Chinese demand. If the communists stimulate again (delaying rebalancing) we can expect an iron ore average price somewhere between $110-$120 this year. If they do not then knock $20 off.

There are also very clear reasons to be bearish in terms of the near term Chinese stock cycle. Chinese steel mills have largely rebuilt their inventory of imported ore after the two huge rundowns of the past eighteen months. Also from Credit Suisse:

restock

Port inventories are not a direct proxy for demand but do indicate something about the fullness or otherwise of the Chinese iron ore supply chain and the great pile of 2012 has also been significantly rebuilt at 91.6 million tonnes this week:

china iron ore port stocks

We remain below previous highs but it’s still an impressive hoard.

In short, we are not far short of the same cyclical surplus of iron ore inventories in China that existed prior to the crash of 2012, and we are facing a similar (if slower moving) emerging crunch in demand.

Cyclical factors should keep these bearish settings at bay for a little while. The first quarter is typically a very strong one for iron ore and steel. Mills build a up big inventory of steel as demand slows in the winter and then run it down over the course of the year. Here is the Chinese rebar inventory cycle courtesy of Bloomberg:

rebar inventory

As well, the cyclone season means mills rebuild their iron ore stockpiles in Q4 and hold high inventories throughout the season. As we’ve already seen, weather threats boost prices. However, given the slowing economy and depleting infrastructure pipeline,  I would not be surprised to see this year’s steel inventory rebuild to be smaller than last year’s, which would be something of a trend break, as you can see.

That the iron ore price is falling at all through this period is quite bearish. There is also the problem that with rebar prices well off the highs of last year, many steel mills are once again losing money. In the past this has triggered iron ore inventory rundowns, which would run counter to, or could  overwhelm, the seasonal strength.

As I warned in the later months of last year, whether Q1’14 will be dominated by a typical spurt of iron ore demand as China moves past its new year holiday at the end of January or the current steel price squeeze triggers a deeper inventory rundown is really beside the point. For anyone with a horizon beyond the next few months, the developing settings in the iron ore market are very clearly price bearish. The average price for the miracle commodity is going to fall materially this year and I would go so far as to say that as the market oscillates downwards it will threaten 2012 lows at some point.

It is a simple truth that without further Chinese stimulus, there is an uncomfortable probability that price falls will be deep enough to cause serious dyspepsia for both high cost producers and the Australian economy this year.

17 Responses to “ “2014 iron ore price forecast”

  1. The Lorax says:

    Welcome back Mr Grumble Bum. Good holiday?

  2. dexterbland says:

    There are some ominous signals coming from other markets which make up the bulk of end-user demand for iron ore:

    -last week property developers (e.g. Vanke) made multi-year lows on SSE. These moves are in response to weak sales and high unsold inventory levels in 3rd/4th tier cities, where large numbers of completions continuing to flood the markets.

    -weekend data confirmed property prices are starting to roll over in many of these cities. 25 cities showed negative real price moves (up from 16 prior month). Oversupply is the issue here NOT government cooling measures (which largely apply in the Tier 1 cities).

    -last week steel mills were also making multi-year lows (all time lows in some cases e.g. BaoSteel). Rebar futures continued to plummet, despite support provided by capacity cuts. These genuinely look to be happening as local government reduce their GDP growth targets and strive to reduce pollution (especially in the case of steel producing stronghold Hebei).

    -Railway construction, the favoured “stimulus” for many steel provinces, is also in trouble. China Railways share price was floundering round the depths last week after the suicide of its CEO. The railway industry has one of the messiest debt situations of all, starting at the top with the Ministry of Railways. Despite this, last week it was announced that central government railway expenditure is being reduced next year.

    I don’t think there is much hope for stimulus for the steel sector. There is wide recognition in government that it is already too large, produces undesirable side effects such as pollution, and expanding it would be moving in the opposite direction of “re-balancing”.

  3. Chris Weston says:

    Goldman’s said today they see supply growth exceeding supply, with 80mt of production capacity potentially being redundant this year. They look for $108 this year, $80pt

    Bloomy consensus is $119 in 2014, $115 2015

    • migtronix says:

      Wow bloomie is pretty expensive outlook still.

    • dexterbland says:

      Goldman’s just reiterated their “conviction sell” on RIO at the same time as Citi upgraded the big miners. Unfortunately the Citi upgrade seems to be on the basis of “we’ve been bearish for a while so must be time for a switch” rather than any well reasoned analysis. But that upgrade was the cause of last week’s big pop in mining stocks in the face of deteriorating fundamentals.

  4. [email protected] says:

    One of the key reasons that are not discussed widely is the effect of Indian iron ore exports (due to corruption and graft – which the current PM was in charge of whilst he was Resources Minister) – especially from the state of Goa, that has effectively reduced supply to China by about 100mt pa over the past two years. Capital intensity remains the biggest barrier to all new entrants, even major mining companies. The average global capital intensity for project development is >$200/t for a haematite producer; basically that means that $20bn of iron ore development has to be funded elsewhere to match that productive shortfall. And I can tell you that kind of money is not being spent in Africa.

    In germane fashion, given Vales production is pretty flat (they have big expansion plans but transport bottle necks keep that supply coming online), and FMG has reached effectively their productive capacity and are now wisely paying down debt; its now only BHP and Rio that are increasing supply. BHP is adding around another 48Mtpa by 2016, and Rio another >115Mt by 2Q 2015. And only a fool would believe that Roy Hill is coming on line soon.

    The big story coming is what happens when a significant portion of Indian iron ore comes back on line. Most of it is being fought in obscure courts rooms in India, but it is clear that in some cases various parties are now allowed to recommence mining activities. In general Indian iron ore production is relatively high cost, but is also relatively high quality and could displace lower quality production.

    Interesting times ahead.

    • migtronix says:

      Africa has too many other resources (rare earth mineral for instance) that getting FeO2 from there makes little sense — I agree with you’re sentiment re India but the newly passed regulations in Indonesia could see pull back from the market.

    • Indian ore is lower quality but low price – around $50 per tonne…if it returns in substance then this year will be all pain for io.

      • [email protected] says:

        Hmmm… not sure where your getting your facts from – so I am not sure how to answer that?

        Exported iron ore from India Orissa is often grades over 63-64%% Fe. Don’t confuse resource grade with production grade. Yes Indian resources are lower than Australian, but beneficiation allows upgrade – the best example (the top of my head) are Brazilian itabirite ores which naturally occur at grades below 30%, but are often exported at just under 64.5%.

        In regards to costs, Indian iron ore producers are considered very expensive (hence the reason why they are often considered swing producers), some operations use 30-40 tonne trucks – there are numerous investment rules that restrict foreign investment into the mining industry within India. The above are generalisations of course – you do have producers such as Sesa Goa – which are a world apart from others…

      • Was largely thinking of Goan producers, which seem the most likely to come back with volume…

  5. 3d1k says:

    Your forecast is a little more upbeat than previously, perhaps a hedge against the difficulty of accurately predicting io. I see Tom Price has also lifted his forecast to USD110.

    I’ll be happy to see a range circa USD120-125.

  6. [email protected] says:

    You are correct, Goa is more near term – Orissa is the largest productive state and the highest grade producers. They are the key ones to watch for…