Speculators run wild in housing finance

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released housing finance data for the month of October, which registered a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% increase in the number of owner-occupied finance commitments over the month:

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The number of owner-occupied housing finance commitments excluding refinancings registered a seasonally-adjusted 2.0% increase over the month to be tracking 8.1% above the five-year moving average level. The number of commitments were also up 13.2% on October 2012 (see next chart).

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The average loan size rose 1.8% over the month and was up 4.0% over the year. The below charts show the series on a 3-month moving average basis (in order to smooth volatility). Note the spike in average loan size after falling since the beginning of the year.

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First home buyer (FHB) commitments rose by a non-seasonally adjusted 10% in October, but represented just 12.6% of total owner-occupied commitments – the second lowest share on record (see below charts).

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Finally, if you’re wondering what’s primarily driving house price at the moment, look no further. While the ABS only provides the value of investor finance commitments, these were up by 8% in October, 29% over the year, and hit the highest level on record (see next chart).

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.