Weekly RP Data Australian house price update

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_19 Mar. 13 13.12

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 7 November 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.36% rise. It was the 11th consecutive weekly increase in values (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_178 Nov. 08 07.56

Values rose in all major capitals except Melbourne (see next chart).

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_179 Nov. 08 07.57

Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 8.631% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_180 Nov. 08 07.58
Advertisement

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 8.19% at the 5-city level, again with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_181 Nov. 08 07.58

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne (see next chart).

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_182 Nov. 08 08.00

Values are up 2.5% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven entirely by strong gains in Sydney, with all of the other major markets still in negative territory, except Perth, where values are essentially flat (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_183 Nov. 08 08.01
Advertisement

However, major capital home values have now gained 10.6% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_184 Nov. 08 08.03

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a very short timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

Advertisement

[email protected]

www.twitter.com/Leithvo

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.