As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released labour force data for the month of August, which registered a 0.1% seasonally-adjusted rise in the headline unemployment rate to 5.8% – a four year high. The result was in line with analysts’ expectations.
Total employment fell by a seasonally adjusted 10,800 persons, with full-time employment decreasing by a 2,600 persons and part-time employment falling by 8,200.
The result was also flatterred by a 0.1% fall in the participation rate to 65.0% (see below charts).
Total employment has now fallen marginally over the past six months (see next chart).
Australia’s employment market continues to rebalance away from the Western Australia, although the loss of jobs in South Australia remains a concern:
The variance of unemployment rates across the four major states continues to narrow, also suggesting the labour market is slowly rebalancing away from mining, although unemployment remains worryingly high in Tasmania and South Australia:
The state seasonally-adjusted figures are notoriously volatile and subject to a big margin of error. As such, the below chart shows the ABS’ trend unemployment rates, which shows Western Australia with the lowest unemployment, Tasmania and South Australia with the highest (and deteriorating), and the others bunched together around the national average:
A big positive from this release is that the aggregate number of hours worked rose by 0.1% nationally in August to a new all-time high, and is up 2.0% over the year:
The growth in annual hours worked has been driven by Queensland, although all mainland states are now in positive territory:
The below chart, which tracks the changes on a trend basis, shows the situation more clearly. In particular, Western Australia’s labour market appears to be recovering somewhat, but South Australia’s remains weak:
The weakening labour market, combined with Australia’s ageing population, has seen the employment-to-population ratio fall to its lowest level in 7.5 years (see next chart).
And to wrap up, the below chart summarises the annual change in the key employment aggregates:
Overall, you can see from the above chart that the Australian labour market remains soft, with jobs growth well below the level required to absorb population growth (with most of the growth in employment part-time), and both the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate continuing to trend down. On the other hand, growth in aggregate hours worked is improving and the labour market has become more balanced, with less reliance on the mining sector to drive jobs growth.
