As summarised earlier by Houses & Holes, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released labour force data for the month of June, which registered an increase in the headline unemployment rate to 5.7% from 5.6% in May (revised up from 5.5%). However, total employment rose by 10,300 seasonally-adjusted, with a 14,800 increase in part-time employment partly offset by a 4,400 fall in full-time employment.
The result missed analysts’ expectations, which had forecast an unemployment rate of 5.6%.
The headline unemployment rate was also made worse by a 0.1% increase in the participation rate to 65.3% (see next chart).
The result continued the steady uptrend in total employment that has been in place since late-2010 (see next chart).
Australia’s employment market continues to rebalance away from the mining states, with New South Wales and Victoria continuing to lead jobs growth over the past year:
Tasmania aside, the variance of unemployment rates across the capitals has narrow significantly recently, also suggesting the labour market is slowly rebalancing away from mining:
That said, the state seasonally-adjusted figures are notoriously volatile and subject to a big margin of error. As such, the below chart shows the ABS’ trend unemployment rates, which shows Western Australia with the lowest unemployment (but worsening fast), Tasmania with the highest (and getting worse), and the others close together above the national average:
A positive aspect of this release is that the aggregate number of hours worked rose by 0.5% nationally in June and is now 1.9% above the level recorded in June 2012:
The increase in aggregate hours worked was driven by Western Australia, where hours worked rebounded back following recent falls. New South Wales also experienced a big lift:
The employment-to-population ratio was steady, but remains in a downtrend:
The rolling annual average number of hours worked per employed person was also steady at 140.4 hours per month, but remains at a record low:
And to wrap up, the below chart summarises the annual change in the key employment aggregates:
Overall, this employment release is not as bad as suggested by the 0.2% rise in the headline unemployment rate. While the labour market remains soft, with jobs growth currently at a lower level than required to absorb population growth (with most of the growth in employment part-time), both the growth in jobs and hours worked is positive, nonetheless. Moreover, the labour market has become more balanced, with less reliance on the mining sector to drive jobs growth.
