Net permanent migration falls for 6th straight month

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By Leith van Onselen

Late last month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released demographic statistics for the September quarter of 2012, which revealed that Australia’s population growth had grown by 1.7% (382,500) in the year to September 2012, with 60% (228,000) of this growth derived from net overseas migration (NOM).

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An interesting aspect of Australia’s NOM figures is that they include temporary arrivals residing in Australia for 12 months or more, suggesting they may not be the best indicator of Australian immigration levels.

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Arguably, a better diagnoses of immigration levels can be derived from the ABS’ monthly overseas arrivals and departures figures, which contains data on the number of permanent arrivals and departures to/from Australia. Figures released yesterday for the month of February 2013 showed that annual permanent net immigration into Australia fell for the sixth consecutive month to 63,260, with permanent migration levels now below the 30-year average (66,404):

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While it is true that the level of permanent arrivals into Australia has risen strongly over the past decade, this increase has been offset by a similar number of Australians relocating permanently overseas, which has also driven the ratio of arrivals to departures lower:

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Overall, the ABS data reveals that roughly two-thirds of net immigration into Australia is temporary, suggesting that immigration levels are not as strong as commonly claimed.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.