Find below the iron ore price table for March 25, 2013:
In news today there is some excitement about the Chinese NDRC’s declaration that Chinese demand for iron ore will jump 50 million tonnes in 2013. From Reuters:
China’s iron ore demand is expected to rise by 50 million tonnes this year, equivalent to about a month’s worth of imports, according to the country’s state planning agency.
But the increase in Chinese demand will not be enough to absorb an anticipated surge in supply this year. The National Development and Reform Commission sees China’s local iron ore supply rising by around 20 million tonnes, while those from top miners Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton will increase by about 100 million tonnes.
Yeees, well, although 50 million tonnes sounds a lot, it isn’t. Factor in local Chinese expansion and it translates to an at best 3% expansion in total seaborne demand, which is well below most private forecaster hopes. Juxtapose this with supply expansion of 10% plus.
