US Economy

Via Moody’s: Significant Differences, Erie Similarities The U.S.

By Leith van Onselen When former Treasurer Peter Costello halved the rate of capital gains tax (CGT) in 1999, it was done on the assumption that a lower rate of CGT would help boost business investment.

Investment markets are late in the economic cycle,  the issue being that you never know when the end will come.

Via Oddschecker: A spike in bets have followed the guilty plea of Michael Cohen.

Via the FT: Germany’s foreign minister has called for the creation of a new payments system independent of the US as a means of rescuing the nuclear deal between Iran and the west that Donald Trump withdrew from in May.

Readers and investors will know that the MB Fund’s prevailing narrative for 2018 was “reverse decoupling”.

In The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy there is a galactic president: The President is very much a figurehead… the qualities he is required to display are not those of leadership but those of finely judged outrage.

by Chris Becker Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future and while trying to overlay charts from different periods can lead to the gambler’s fallacy, it’s when fundamentals collide with technicals that you should pay attention.

The big economic news over the weekend was the US July non-farm payrolls, which came in at 157,000 versus 193,000 expected.

Cross posted from The Conversation: by Richard Holden Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW The US economy grew at a startling 4.1% in the second quarter, the first time in four years it has hit the 4% mark.

by Chris Becker The FOMC meeting by the Federal Reserve overnight came and went without much fuss, but traders and analysts are focusing in on the “strong” phrase, used no  less than five times in the statement.

By Leith van Onselen There is little doubt that the Trump Administration’s tax cut package has been a disaster for ordinary Americans.

A frequent focus point for the media is whether a company “beat” its earnings forecasts or not.

Via Moody’s: Base Metals Price Drop Suggests All Is Not Well Though it goes practically unmentioned, one of the more unexpected developments of late has been the stunning collapse of Moody’s industrial metals price index.

For those suffering from “Trump derangement syndrome” here a Trump 101 series from Steven Bannon via CNBC.

DXY was firm again last night: AUD fell then recovered versus DMs: Was stronger versus EMs: Gold held on: Oil too: Base metals firmed: Big miners bounced: EM stocks eased: Junk firmed: Treasuries were sold: Bunds bought: Stocks were firm: US data was soft with ordinary housing starts.

Via Westpac: FOMC Chair Powell appeared before the Senate’s Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs overnight in part one of his Semiannual report to Congress.

DXY was strong last night as EUR wilted.

Good breakdown by Credit Suisse (via the Wall Street Journal) on where the US earnings growth is coming from: Oil is good for a small set of companies, bad for the rest.

From Moody’s: Outstandings of Rated U.S.

The monthly US jobs preview Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May (with a range of estimates between 144,000 to 212,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%.

Via Morgan Stanley: We no longer doubt that the US administration’s proposals signal the direction of trade policy.