Global Macro

A good piece from Patrick Commins at the AFR today: Is an upcoming rate rise in the US about to help spark the next emerging market mini-crisis?

The Mining GFC has either entered a new phase or markets are once again deluded.

The Mining GFC continues to simmer.

The Mining GFC is threatening again but was held at bay by oil last night.

It appears the Fed is over its case of the yips.

By Leith van Onselen Since the beginning, Nobel Prize winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz, has been an outspoken critic of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement.

From the AFR: In his latest investment note, analyst Russell Napier argues that Shinzo Abe is presently trying to persuade US and European leaders to agree to a co-ordinated boost in fiscal spending in order to bolster global growth at the G7 Ise-Shima summit which he will host later this month.

It’s back and it’s angry.

From investment legend Stanley Drukenmiller: The Endgame When I started Duquesne in February of 1981, the risk free rate of return, 5 year treasuries, was 15%.

By Leith van Onselen US Democratic front-runner, Hilary Clinton, has once again voiced her opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, flagging that if she is elected president in November she would oppose a vote to ratify the TPP during a lame-duck session of Congress.

The US dollar firmed Friday on its decent jobs report: The euro and yen charge has fallen away for now: Commodity currencies bounced except the Aussie: Oil firmed: Base metals were mixed: Miners enjoyed a little relief rally: And US high yield fell while EM rose: Mostly tactical action on the night.

The US dollar continues its Lazarus performance: Euro and yen saw relief:  Commodity currencies were monstered: Gold eased back: Brent too: And base metals: Miners were thumped again: US and EM high yield fell: This looks driven largely by fading froth around the Chinese stimulus.

From HSBC: What the latest PMIs mean for Asia Well, things fizzled rather quickly.

The RBA rate cut, the soft Chines PMIs and Europe downgrading its own growth outlook were enough to end the Mining GFC bear market rally last night.

The Mining GFC has faded sufficiently that traders can again imagine the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

From Macquarie:  The industrial sector of the world economy – mines, utilities and manufacturers – uses a lot of metals and hence growth in industrial production (IP) is crucial to the health of metals markets.