Australian Property

November’s house price results from CoreLogic posted a 1.0% decline nationally and a 1.1% fall across the five major capital city markets.

CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which measures price changes across the five major capital city markets, declined by 0.31% in the week ended 1 December.

In late July, The Great Housing Debate took place between Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye and economist Stephen Koukoulas (‘The Kouk’).

A report by consultancy firm KPMG shows that fertility rates in the inner suburbs of our two largest cities – Sydney and Melbourne – have plummeted to around half the level (2.1) needed to replace the population without immigration.

CoreLogic’s November house price report shows that rents continued to grow at an extreme pace, fueled by the return of large-scale net overseas migration.

Modelling by BetaShares shows that Australia’s mortgage payments to income ratio has risen to 42.8%, which is its highest level since the September 1990 quarter.

CoreLogic has released its full dwelling value results for November, with national values falling by 1.0% over the month and by 3.5% over the quarter: Every sub-market other than Perth (0%) and Darwin (0.2%) registered value declines in November, with Brisbane and Hobart (both 2.0%) falling the hardest.

ANZ Economics has revised its forecast peak-to-trough decline in Australian house prices to 18%, with a recovery not expected until 2024: The decline in prices will be driven by reduced borrowing capacity following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s aggressive interest rate hikes.

New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that dwelling approvals fell 6.0% in October to be down 6.4% year-on-year.

A new ABC report claims “thousands and thousands of apartments have serious defects in their buildings” in what experts have described as an “absolute catastrophe”.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released aggregate mortgage data for October, with mortgage growth falling to 1.4% over the quarter – the softest result since February 2021: As illustrated in the next chart, quarterly mortgage growth has fallen sharpest across investors (1.0%), which has fallen to its lowest level since August 2021.

Rental affordability has tumbled across the country, according to SGS Economics’ rental affordability index, which shows falls of up to 14% in some parts of the country over the past 12 months.

Last month’s federal budget announced a “new housing accord” that would aspire to “build one million new, well-located homes over five years from 2024”.

SQM Research’s Boom and Bust report forecasts that the housing market could rebound if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) puts interest rate increases on hold.

Below is Westpac’s analysis on Brisbane’s housing market, which has switched “abruptly from a vigorous boom that was still in full-swing back in Q1 to steep declines in turnover and prices in the second half”.

Propertybuyer CEO Rich Harvey has told The AFR that he expects an upturn in distressed property sales by mid-2023.

Below is Westpac’s latest analysis on Victoria’s (Melbourne’s) housing correction, which looks “firmly locked in” and “still has some way to run”. Vic remains firmly locked in a material housing market correction. Turnover is down 30% from its 2021 high (albeit with declines exaggerated by last year’s delta disruptions).