Australian Property

AMP Capital’s chief economist, Shane Oliver, has released a podcast explaining why he believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is close to the end of its monetary tightening cycle.

Westpac’s latest consumer sentiment survey, released on Tuesday, revealed that Australians are “deeply pessimistic” about the housing market, with the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index falling 2.9% to 74.9, holding near cycle lows.

By Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac: Key Points: Consumer Sentiment lifts by 3.0% but still near recession lows.

By Ross Elliott, cross-posted from The Pulse The dreaded “Not In My Backyard” reaction of homeowners who have the temerity to object to neighbourhood changes they never voted for (or were even asked about) is reaching plague proportions, if you believe what some urban designers and planners are saying.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet and Fair Trading Minister Victor Dominello have announced that the state will outlaw rental bidding, a move that brings it into line with Victoria and Western Australia.

CoreLogic has released data on Australia’s rental market, which shows a national disaster in the making.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has published global household debt statistics for the June quarter of 2022. This shows that Australia’s total household debt is the second highest in the world when measured against gross domestic product (GDP).

Eight consecutive interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) looks to have finally broken Australia’s auction market, with clearances plummeting in the biggest weekend of auctions since late May.

The Housing Industry of Australia (HIA) released new home sales data for November, which “produced the weakest three months of sales since the first national lockdown froze new home sales in early 2020”.

CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index hit another milestone over the weekend, with Sydney dwelling values falling 12% from their mid-February peak: Virtually all of this decline has occurred following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) first interest rate hike in early May.

Below is an edited extract of the ‘Your Next Mortgage Move’ Report published by Aussie Home Loans and CoreLogic: Australia’s mortgage market is moving through unprecedented change.

CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which tracks price changes across the five major capital city markets, fell another 0.29% in the week ended 8 November.

CoreLogic’s Eliza Owen tipped an increase in forced property sales in 2023 once hundreds of billions of dollars worth of fixed rate mortgages roll over from their current cheap emergency low interest rates (circa 2%) to 5% or 6%.

Westpac with the note.

In its commentary accompanying Tuesday’s monetary policy decision, which lifted the official cash rate (OCR) another 0.25%, RBA governor Phil Lowe warned that “inflation in Australia is too high” and that “the Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead, but it is not on a pre-set course”.

The latest housing lending data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that mortgage demand has collapsed, down 17% year-on-year in October.

The Spring selling season is typically boom time for Australia’s property market and real estate agencies.

Bernard Salt says “it is found in every city, suburb and town on the Australian continent.

Today’s expected 0.25% increase in the official cash rate (OCR) by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the average discount variable mortgage rate to 6.45%, up an extraordinary 3.0% from the 3.45% that presided before the first rate hike in early May.

November’s rental vacancy data from Domain shows vacancy rates nationally holding at a record low 0.8%, down nearly half from 1.5% in November 2021: There were 20,320 vacant rentals in November, which was down 46.6% compared to the same period a year earlier.

I noted on Friday that Australian house prices were falling at the fastest pace on record, falling 7.6% in only seven months across the five major capital cities: This countered the emerging narrative from some corners that Australia’s housing correction was nearing a bottom.