Australian Economy

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has been released with confidence lifting 0.3% in the weekend of 1-2 May following the end of Perth’s lockdown: The consumer confidence index (112.7) is now running around the historical average since 1990 (112.6); although the four-week average (113.3) is higher.

Sources cited by The Australian have indicated that next week’s Federal Budget is likely to include a one-year extension of the low and middle income tax offset (LMITO), which is worth up to $1080.

The Guardian’s economics poster boy, Greg Jericho, has written another article chock full of shiny charts attacking the federal government’s inability to drive unemployment down and wage growth up.

The Australian has released a stunning series of reports (here and here) on Victoria’s latest hotel quarantine failure, which seeded the state’s third hard lockdown in February and resulted in international arrivals being banned for two months.

Yesterday’s mortgage data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggests that HomeBuilder and associated stimulus is starting to fade. According to the Housing Industry Association (HIA), first home buyer (FHB) activity in the construction market hit “its highest level since the stimulus associated with the GFC”.

For years we have fruitlessly pointed out the folly of Australia’s east coast gas exports.

And so it begins.

David Plank, economist at ANZ Bank, tips that the RBA will issue a revised forecast for the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% – the so-called ‘full employment’ level – by June 2023.

New data from Roy Morgan Research tracking people movements across Australia’s capital cities shows that activity across Melbourne’s and Sydney’s CBDs was less than half their pre-COVID level at the end of April.

ANZ has released its job ads report for April, which posted a 4.7% month-on-month rise in April, suggesting the labour market is well placed to absorb the ending of the JobKeeper wage subsidy.

As we know, Australia’s household saving rate boomed last calendar year on the back of lockdowns (which reduced expenditure) and massive stimulus (which increased disposable income).

Below is a submission to the inquiry into Australia’s skilled migration program, written by Sustainable Population Australia with my assistance.

New government figures show that more than 90,000 people have come off welfare benefits since JobKeeper ended in late-March.

There is no shame, nor memory, in the Australian press: Neil Perry can’t find workers for his new restaurant.

Via AIG: It’ll slow before long as catch-up growth passes.

Peter Downes of Outlook Economics supports the federal government’s decision to prioritise jobs and wages growth in the Budget on 11 May.

Australia’s labour market continues to power past the expiry of JobKeeper, with job postings now up 43.1% on 1 February 2020, according to Indeed: According to Indeed’s Australian economist, Callam Pickering: Postings dipped slightly in early April, likely reflecting some residual seasonality from Easter, but have since surged higher.

As we know, the Hayne Banking Royal Commission’s first recommendation was to maintain responsible lending laws: The Hayne Royal Commission came to this recommendation after observing multiple cases of predatory lending over its 12 month deliberation.

The price of used cars is surging due to a lack of supply following the pandemic.

The Victorian Government is moving ahead with plans to build a 500-bed cabin-style quarantine facility at Donnybrook Road, Mickelham – north of Melbourne.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has signalled that further reducing the unemployment rate will be a priority in the federal government’s Budget on 11 May.