Goldman has a crack.
We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 250k in June (mom sa). Job growth tends to pick up in June when the labor market is tight—reflecting strong hiring of youth summer workers—and all four of the Big Data indicators we track indicate a strong pace of job growth. On the negative side, the June seasonal factors have evolved to become more restrictive in recent years, which could offset some of the summer hiring tailwind.
We estimate the unemployment rate pulled back by one tenth to 3.6%(consensus also 3.6%) reflecting a rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation at 62.6%. We estimate a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that lowers the year-on-year rate to 4.2%, reflecting waning upward wage pressures and neutral calendar effects (consensus also 0.3% / 4.2%)
