JPM with the note.
We forecast that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% in June, with the year-ago pace falling to 3.2% from 4.0% in May. If realized, this would be the slowest year-ago pace since March 2021, reflecting large base effects. Energy prices increased slightly (0.3% in June) after sizable declines in two of the three prior months. Food prices likely ticked up on the month.\
Away from food and energy, we estimate that core CPI rose 0.3% in June (0.28% to two decimals). If realized, this would be the first time in six consecutive months that the increase in core prices wasn’t at least 0.4%, and the year-ago pace would slip to 5.0% from 5.3% in May. While we still look for some additional cooling in core inflation over the next few months, it may prove sticky later this year as some components that exhibited earlier strong disinflation subsequently normalize. The gradual cooling in shelter inflation should continue in June, as owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.51% and tenants’ rent gained 0.52%. Lodging prices have been volatile of late, and we look for another move lower (-0.9%) after a pop in May
