Previewing US CPI

Tuesday, 13 June 2023

Credit Suisse with the wrap.

On Tuesday, the BLS will release its May CPI report.Our work indicates thatYoYinflation is likely to fall to 4.2% in May, 3.2% in June (July12 release). Should this play out as expected, this would represent one of the greatest drops experienced in a 2-month period over the past 70 years.

Historically, similar declines have only occurred during periods of economic upheaval, such as the onset of COVID, the Great Recession, and in 1975 during the Great Inflation.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.