Sinocism with the news.
Grim youth employment situation
最近三年到底有多少青年人失业？关于目前就业问题的几点研究分析
Researcher Wang Mingyuan 王明远 has written a grim analysis of the youth unemployment situation and argues that it is going to get worse.
Wang writes that “from now until 2030 will be the most challenging period for employment since China’s reform and opening-up.
It not only requires addressing the unemployment stock over the past three years but also facing the fact that urban employment demand will reach its historical peak.
The employment dilemma will be more prominent than ever before”.
Wang’s key conclusions:
The difference between the annual increase in employment and the number of graduates from 2020 to 2023 is -2.49 million, -2.20 million, -4.49 million, and -5.82 million, respectively.
This means that over 15 million new graduates in these years were unable to find jobs that year. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that a considerable portion of them eventually resolved their employment issues after a certain delay.
1.2020年—2023年每年新增就业人数与应届毕业生数量之差分别为-249万、-220万、-449万、-582万，也就是说这些年累计有1500余万新毕业生当年没有找到工作，当然不排除相当部分经过一段延迟最终解决了就业问题。
In the past three years, the average number of employees in A-share listed companies has decreased by 11.9%.
The company cancellation rate last year was approximately 10%, which means that roughly 10% of employees faced layoffs or unemployment challenges. This translates to around 21 million young people.
2.最近三年A股上市公司平均员工数减少了11.9%，去年企业注销率大致为10%，这意味着大致于10%的在职员工遇到裁员或失业困境，这部分青年人约2100万左右。
In addition, since the outbreak of the pandemic, over 8 million young migrant workers have returned home due to unemployment.
The cumulative number of unemployed young people (aged 16-40) over the past three years is about 54 million. Of course, a considerable portion of them have since found reemployment or engaged in flexible employment.
3.此外，疫情以来还有800余万青年农民工因失业返乡，三年累计产生的青年（16-40岁）失业人员约5400万，当然其中相当部分以后又实现了再就业或灵活就业。
With the further increase in the scale of college entrance examinations and graduate admissions, the number of graduates in China will increase by an additional 3 million by 2025 compared to 2022, reaching a total of nearly 20 million.
The employment situation will become even more severe.
In general, from now until 2030 will be the most challenging period for employment since China’s reform and opening-up.
It not only requires addressing the unemployment stock over the past three years but also facing the fact that urban employment demand will reach its historical peak. The employment dilemma will be more prominent than ever before.
4.随着高考和研究生招生规模进一步增加，到2025年我国应届毕业生规模将比2022年进一步增加300万，总数达到近2000万，就业形势将更加严峻。总体讲，今后到2030年将是我国改革开放以来就业形势最严峻的时期，既要消化过去三年的失业存量，又要面对城镇就业需求达到历史最高峰的事实，就业矛盾比任何时候都突出。
The current difficulty in employment is mainly due to setbacks encountered by the private economy, digital economy, and service industry.
Therefore, improving the market environment and promoting the development of the private economy, digital economy, and service industry remains the only way to solve the employment problem.
It is not feasible to discuss employment without considering the development of the private economy, digital economy, and service industry.
5.当前就业难，主要直接原因是民营经济、数字经济和服务业遇到波折造成的，因此，改善市场环境，促进民营经济、数字经济和服务业发展，仍是解决就业问题的唯一通道，离开发展民营经济、数字经济和服务业谈就业，目前是行不通的。
Employment is the primary goal of economic development and the most authentic indicator of its achievements. GDP growth that cannot effectively solve the employment problem cannot be considered as effective growth.
6.就业乃经济发展的首要目标，也是经济发展成果的最真实晴雨表，不能有效解决就业问题的GDP增长，都不能视为有效的增长。
China’s young want to work. For the government – The Economist
The number of unemployed youth (about 6.3m in the first three months of this year) is small relative to China’s 486m-strong urban workforce.
But they attract most of the attention, points out Xiangrong Yu of Citigroup, a bank, and his colleagues.
The anxiety and disappointment felt by college students—and spread through social media—could “affect the confidence of the entire society”, write Zhuo Xian and his co-authors at the Development Research Centre (drc), a government think-tank.
China’s Young People Can’t Find Jobs. Xi Jinping Says to ‘Eat Bitterness.’ – The New York Times
China’s young people are facing record-high unemployment as the country’s recovery from the pandemic is fluttering. They’re struggling professionally and emotionally.
Yet the Communist Party and the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, are telling them to stop thinking they are above doing manual work or moving to the countryside.
They should learn to “eat bitterness,” Mr. Xi instructed, using a colloquial expression that means to endure hardships.
Record number of candidates to participate in China’s college entrance exam-Xinhua
A record 12.91 million people have applied for this year’s college entrance exam in China, also known as the “gaokao,” marking an increase of 980,000 from 2022, according to figures released by the Ministry of Education on Thursday.
Interesting that Xi now wants to de-urbanise China. That’s not good for steel output and bulk commodities.
My fear is the next move by Beijing is to intensify internal and external aggression.
Nationalism, national services and good ‘ol war is a solution that presents itself to the dictator here.
