BofAML: Gold to $3000

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BofAML calls it:

Gold prices have performed well in the recent period

As the ultimate store of value, gold prices have performed well during the past 15 months, posting a rally of over 10% since the Federal Reserve did a monetary policy U-turn in January 2019. Gold has also delivered a strong performance against other asset classes YTD. Of course, it has not been a straight line up, and gold did sell off hard for a brief period in March. The swing in gold prices mirrored the down and then up move in real interest rates. Now our CTA models suggest gold positioning is light, likely because of the spike in volatility and the mechanical drop in the gold Sharpe ratio. But this constraint could change as volatility keeps falling quickly across financial markets.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.