Time for APRA to cut its investor mortgage speed limit

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APRA released its January lending numbers today which showed a seasonal slowing:

ANZ CBA MAC NAB SUN WBC BEN SUN Total
Jan-17 -1.7 7.9 -5.7 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.2
Dec-16 -1.7 7.2 -5.2 4.5 5.1 5.1 3.6 3.8 4.0
Nov-16 -2.1 6.3 -4.8 4.5 4.3 4.3 2.2 1.9 3.4
Oct-16 -2.4 5.1 -3.4 5.1 3.9 3.9 0.2 0.6 3.0
Sep-16 -2.9 3.4 -3.0 4.9 -6.9 -6.9 -1.4 -0.1 0.9
Aug-16 -3.4 1.8 -1.9 5.2 -8.6 -8.6 -1.9 -0.1 -1.7
Jul-16 -3.7 1.4 -1.1 5.0 -5.1 -12.0 -2.3 -5.1 -3.0
Jun-16 -2.6 1.2 1.9 46.4 -4.1 -10.2 -2.4 -4.1 3.1
May-16 -0.9 1.5 4.5 48.2 -5.3 -9.8 3.6 -5.3 4.1
Apr-16 0.5 1.9 17.3 49.3 -0.6 -9.3 3.3 -6.9 5.0
Mar-16 1.8 2.4 19.9 50.7 -7.3 -8.8 -7.3 -7.3 5.7
Feb-16 2.9 3.0 31.2 51.9 -7.9 -8.3 -7.9 -7.9 6.5
Jan-16 3.9 3.5 36.5 52.5 -5.1 -7.7 -5.1 -5.1 7.2

The two big lenders, CBA and WBC, have both been going at it close to or above the APRA 10% limit for the past six months:

ANZ CBA MAC NAB SUN WBC BEN SUN Total
Jan-17 -0.1 0.6 -0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.3
Dec-16 0.5 0.8 -0.9 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.8 6.3
Nov-16 0.3 0.8 -0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.8 0.4 5.7
Oct-16 0.2 0.7 -0.6 0.6 -0.2 0.6 1.9 -0.2 5.4
Sep-16 -0.1 0.7 -0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.4 0.7
Aug-16 -0.3 0.6 -1.0 0.4 -0.3 0.6 1.0 -0.3 3.4
Jul-16 -0.6 0.7 -0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.1 2.6
Jun-16 -0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.1 1.7 0.6 -6.3 1.7 3.0
May-16 -0.4 0.9 -0.2 0.4 2.1 0.2 0.6 2.1 3.5
Apr-16 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.9 1.1 1.9
Mar-16 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.3 1.1 -0.1 1.8
Feb-16 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 0.4
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Obviously enough, for the type of price growth we’re seeing in Sydney and Melbourne, some huge proportion of this lending is going there, as CoreLogic pointed to overnight:

ScreenHunter_17663 Feb. 27 16.38

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.