From Peter van Onselen:
Nationals MPs the nation over should worry that Liberals are testing the possibility of replacing their long-time Coalition partner with One Nation. What better place to trial the new relationship than in Western Australia: a government unlikely to win and a Nationals Party that unlike those of other states refuses to enter into formal coalition?
One Nation is strongest in regional and outer-metro seats, posing a threat to Nationals MPs, and some marginal Liberal and Labor incumbents.
But the deal with One Nation is a foolish one because there is so little in it for the Barnett government. Giving One Nation upper house preferences from the Liberal Party in exchange for lower house preferences will likely hand the minor party control of the state’s Legislative Council, irrespective of which major party wins the election. That’s a policy nightmare for Western Australia when one considers the sort of ideas One Nation spruiks on its platform.
…Liberals are hoping to defend joining hands with One Nation on the grounds Labor has long done so with the Greens, but they seem to forget how much they enjoy slamming Labor for lurching to the Left when it deals with the Greens. It’s a potent political weapon Labor is enjoying redeploying at the Liberals for their new-found dealings with One Nation.
Hmm, well, I’m not so sure that that is political asset to Labor. Sure, hoping that One Nation and The Greens are moral equivalents in the minds of the electorate is a long bow. One is fighting the potential extinction of the species while the other is an anti-science pack of troglodytes.
However, that is a structural reality and politics is cyclical. While The Greens spend political capital protecting policies on social issues, such as high immigration, they are abandoning the key debates that are determining people’s votes for the now. We know how wedded The Greens are to this policy. Liaison with the party has shown it be an article of faith. Yet in today’s environment, as the lived experience of unmanaged immigration weighs on ordinary living standards, immigration becomes a much more pressing question for the electorate than decarbonisation.
The Coalition is mulling a tactical alliance with One Nation but as Peter points out there is no such thing. Once together, the alliance will rely on shared policies, just as it does with the Nats. This could take the Coalition down some very dark paths, including discriminatory immigration. I would not count of Do-nothing Malcolm not doing this. He is the empty suit.
If they are not careful that could harden Green opposition to any immigration reform, in turn pressuring Labor to resist it. That will alienate Labor from its core constituency. Think of Kim Beazley marching towards victory then sinking on the Tampa.
The Left, such as it is, needs to embrace lower immigration now. It can be done easily and morally with an increased refugee intake and the embrace of reform to the corrupt visa system. It need and should not have any discriminatory element at all.
Despite current polls, whoever does this first is in the box seat for the next election.
