Will Australia print negative GDP?

Monday, 5 December 2016

From Macquarie:

 Australia’s 3Q16 GDP outcome is likely to surprise in both directions and throw up many questions. We have some answers. Our forecast is for the economy to grow, just, given disappointing outcomes for construction, retail volumes, and business investment.

 Annual rebenchmarking revisions add a degree of uncertainty to what the pace of growth will be. But what seems clear from the outset is that the economy has slowed since at least the middle of 2016, and growth will disappoint the estimates underpinning the RBA’s and the Consensus outlook.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.