From Ifeng:
The Beijing News (Reporter Zhang Xiaolan) in the hot city of regulation and control policies to upgrade the background, November housing market supply and demand both cooling, which continued the demand side of the downward trend in October. Centaline Property Research Center statistics show that in November the country’s major 54 cities total commercial housing contracted volume of 24.9 million units, down 11%, refresh the last 18 months, the lowest value (not included in the Spring Festival in February), up 2015 In November fell to 16.4%. Market in the “September 30 New Deal” after the introduction of 2 consecutive months, there is a more obvious phenomenon of the volume down.
Shenzhen net signed volume fell 30%, Hangzhou, Nanjing “waist cut”
November continued downward trend in market turnover, individual city control policy again overweight, increasing market sentiment.
From the city, including Beijing and other first-tier cities, a decrease of 19.5%. Among them, the Beijing November net signed 5861 sets (including housing), Shanghai signed 11,690 units, Guangzhou signed 10,453 units, Shenzhen signed 2829 sets, the chain fell to 7%, 12%, 28%, 30%, the market a comprehensive adjustment sign. Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities were ring than the volume of more than 50% of the cut.Non-regulation of the city as a whole new home transactions down 9.4%.
According to the research center and the statistics show that in 15 have introduced control policies in the city, there are four cities in the chain rose. Respectively, Wuhan, Nanning, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou. Wuhan and Zhengzhou in September rose 14%, Nanning, Fuzhou, almost unchanged from last month. It is noteworthy that, Nanning has been broken for two consecutive million square meters of transactions, turnover continued to rise while the highest historical highs.
Price: Shenzhen narrowed, Beijing is still up
Housing prices, although a lot of hot city transaction volume has dropped significantly, but some prices have narrowed. According to the statistics of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, the average price of primary residential transactions in November fell by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter to 54,986 yuan / square meter, compared to 9.7% decline last month, narrowed, mainly by the new housing market structured transactions .While some of the city housing prices are still rising. According to Centaline Property Research Center of the statistics show that in November the average price of new housing transactions in Beijing 40,672 yuan / square meter, a new high.
In this regard, Ke Rui Rui Research Center, the recent statement that most of the increase in land supply in the fourth quarter of the city, for the goal is still not high, high quality housing supply is still inadequate. The restriction, the introduction of credit limit, of course, limited the influx of a large number of demand, but the strict supervision of pre-sale permit, house prices “limit up so” policy also hit a lot of projects to push the case enthusiasm, most urban commercial housing The market is still in short supply situation.
Yiju Institute think tank center Yan Yuejin that from the market trading volume, the second-tier cities are basically hot spots there have been cooling; future trading volume will continue to decline, this trend or continue until the second quarter of next year. From the relationship between volume and price, Yan Yuejin that prices will decline due to a slight decline in trading volume; but the data can be observed to reflect a feature that prices do not rise or fall, more stable.
November control overweight involved in more than 10 cities
November, the property market regulation and control efforts to upgrade overweight, re-coding in November, the city involved in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuhan, more than 10 cities. Among them, Shanghai will be the first suite to improve the down payment ratio to 35%; Tianjin, Hangzhou and other cities introduced the adjustment of differential housing credit policy, the mortgage down payment to 30%.
In addition, the bank credit, from the CBRC to the local, to tighten the mortgage signal is obvious.Recently, Shanghai issued a notice, residents to purchase the first set of housing loans will be “recognized room and credit.” Beijing has some banks began to “identify the room and credit,” also said the bank outlets have stopped issuing two suites loans.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei said that the current round of policy will quickly curb housing prices rose too fast, once the tight end of the year the central bank, housing prices are likely to spread down to many cities.The past ten years of real estate fluctuations in history, and monetary policy is fully consistent, once the credit policy tightening, the real estate market will quickly cool down.
Yan Yuejin said that from the policy level, not all of the commercial banks to tighten the tightening of the instructions or documents issued, but the window guidance or allow some of the tight line of commercial banks to self-regulation, it is possible.
Big transaction volume falls in eastern bubble cities but some prices holding up. Shrinkflation comes to China.
I still expect construction to fall away.
