Paris Climate Accord races to beat Trump

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From the FT:

China and the US, the world’s two largest carbon polluters, have both ratified the Paris climate change agreement in a big boost to efforts to bring the UN accord into force.

…The joint move on Saturday highlighted the determination of both presidents not to let differences over territorial claims in the South China Sea, economic disputes and cyber espionage stand in the way of progress in other areas. It also came just hours before Mr Obama met Mr Xi on the last trip of his presidency to Asia.

…Donald Trump, the Republican Party nominee, has called global warming a hoax and is expected to try to pull the US out of the Paris deal if he wins the November 8 presidential election.

That move would be harder if the accord had already entered force but this can only happen 30 days after 55 countries accounting for 55 per cent of emissions formally join or ratify it.

Up until today, only 24 countries representing 1.08 per cent of emissions had done this, mostly small island nations.

China and the US together account for 38 per cent of emissions and the easiest way to push the agreement towards the line would be if the EU’s 28 countries, with a 12.08 per cent share of emissions, acted soon.

The European Commission has been urging member countries to act since June. Officials in Brussels believe it is legally possible for the commission to effectively ratify the agreement on behalf of all 28 members, following a vote in the European Council, but some countries are wary about such a move and say individual countries must ratify first.

The latest polling shows Trump pulling back some of his lost ground:

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Clinton needs a big lead. If recent polls that are impacted by debates around globalisation are any guide there will be significant shadow support for Trump that does not register in polling owing to an embarrassment factor.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.