Investment mortgages remain contained

APRA has released its monthly banking statistics for August and investment lending remains contained, down -1.7% year on year and growing 0.3% month on month:

CBA, WBC and NAB are all rebounding though the top eight are not yet in aggregate, month on month:

	ANZ	CBA	MAC	NAB	SUN	WBC	BEN	SUN	Total
Aug-16	-0.3	0.6	-1.0	0.4	-0.3	0.6	1.0	-0.3	0.3
Jul-16	-0.6	0.7	-0.6	0.3	-0.1	-0.6	0.5	-0.1	0.3
Jun-16	-0.5	1.2	-0.1	0.1	1.7	-0.1	-6.3	1.7	0.3
May-16	-0.4	0.9	-0.2	0.4	2.1	-0.2	0.6	2.1	0.4
Apr-16	-0.2	0.5	-0.1	0.2	1.1	-0.1	0.9	1.1	0.2
Mar-16	-0.2	0.2	0.0	0.3	-0.1	0.0	1.1	-0.1	0.2
Feb-16	-0.2	0.0	-0.4	0.4	-0.7	-0.4	0.1	-0.7	0.0
Jan-16	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	0.4	-0.5	-0.1	-0.3	-0.5	0.1
Dec-15	0.1	0.0	-0.5	0.5	-1.0	-0.5	-0.2	-1.0	0.1
Nov-15	0.0	-0.3	0.6	0.9	-0.9	0.6	-0.1	-0.9	0.2
Oct-15	-0.2	-0.9	-0.1	0.4	-0.8	-0.1	0.2	-0.8	-3.3
Sep-15	-0.6	-0.9	0.4	0.7	-0.5	0.4	0.3	-0.5	-0.5
Aug-15	-0.6	0.3	-0.1	0.2	-5.2	-0.1	0.6	-5.5	-1.0

And year on year:

	ANZ	CBA	MAC	NAB	SUN	WBC	BEN	SUN	Total
Aug-16	-3.4	1.8	-1.9	5.2	-8.6	5.3	-1.9	-0.1	-1.7
Jul-16	-3.7	1.4	-1.1	5.0	-5.1	-12.0	-2.3	-5.1	-3.0
Jun-16	-2.6	1.2	1.9	46.4	-4.1	-10.2	-2.4	-4.1	3.1
May-16	-0.9	1.5	4.5	48.2	-5.3	-9.8	3.6	-5.3	4.1
Apr-16	0.5	1.9	17.3	49.3	-0.6	-9.3	3.3	-6.9	5.0
Mar-16	1.8	2.4	19.9	50.7	-7.3	-8.8	-7.3	-7.3	5.7
Feb-16	2.9	3.0	31.2	51.9	-7.9	-8.3	-7.9	-7.9	6.5
Jan-16	3.9	3.5	36.5	52.5	-5.1	-7.7	-5.1	-5.1	7.2
Dec-15	5.0	4.2	40.6	53.7	-2.5	-7.2	-2.5	-2.5	8.0
Nov-15	6.0	4.9	45.5	55.1	0.5	-6.4	0.5	0.5	8.9
Oct-15	7.1	6.1	48.5	55.6	5.2	-6.0	12.4	2.8	9.7
Sep-15	8.4	7.9	66.3	56.6	4.8	5.2	14.4	4.8	14.4
Aug-15	10.2	9.7	72.0	57.0	5.6	7.3	16.0	5.6	16.0

I’d still be tightening, especially on CBA, but there is still nothing here to support house price rises. On the contrary…

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.