Treasury hosed Turnbull’s WA GST thought bubble

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Is it worse when a PM has a thought bubble or when a PM has thought bubble, has it hosed by his expert advisors, then proceeds anyway? From Domainfax:

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s latest plan for the GST would create a new nightmare of complexity and controversy.

At least that was the advice offered up by Treasury when it was headed by Martin Parkinson – the man who now runs Mr Turnbull’s own department.

…in its submission to the 2012 GST Distribution Review, Mr Morrison’s own department raised concerns about a floor.

Treasury cautioned such a change would create a whole new mess of red tape, complexity and unpredictability for states.

“Although states breaching the floor would benefit from increased predictability, this would be outweighed by reduced predictability for states unaffected by the floor,” Treasury wrote in its 70-page submission.

Not that it matters now. Like all thought bubble policy it has half-life of roughly 12 hours, from The Australian last week:

Malcolm Turnbull’s plan to fix the GST distribution formula so that each state is guaranteed a minimum share will be implemented “down the road” so that no state will be immediately worse off, Treasurer Scott Morrison says.

Western Australia’s low share of the annual GST distribution has been a political sore point in the state, with the state receiving only 30 per cent of the funds it would get if GST were distributed on a per-capita basis. Because the state has such a rich flow of resource royalties, the Commonwealth Grants Commission has distributed 70 per cent of Western Australia’s GST share to weaker states.

Although premier Colin Barnett argues the commonwealth does not need an agreement with the states to make the change, Mr Morrison insisted the plan “would have to be worked through with all the states and territories”.

“It’s down the track; we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves,” the Treasurer told 2GB.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.