Who is immigrating to Australia?

From UBS:

Australia’s population growth has stabilised at 1.4% y/y – still high by international standards – after a few years of slowing from 2012’s recent peak of 1.8% y/y. This stabilisation is positive news for Australia’s growth outlook.

80% of this prior population growth slowdown has been due to reduced net overseas migration (with the rest due to a few less births & a few more deaths per year). But interestingly, slowing in net migration has been almost entirely due to a pick-up in Australians migrating offshore (with a record 306k Australians migrating outbound in 2015), rather than fewer inbound permanent migrants.

Where does Australia source its relatively steady flow of almost 500k inbound new arrivals each year (2% of the population)? Almost 60% come from Asia, while those from Oceania & Africa make up about 15% each. Only about 10% come from Europe, while the Americas are a small but steady 2-3% each year. This is in stark contrast to the late 1990s, where once 50% of arrivals came from Europe & Oceania together (halved now to only 25%), and a smaller 30% came from Asia (now doubled to 60%). By country, the five dominant origins are India, China, NZ, UK & Philippines, which together determine about 50% of permanent arrivals. India & China have risen to the top two spots over the past 5 years (each rising from a ~10% to a ~15% share).

We also update our ‘augmented’ population growth series, which captures the ongoing 20% boom in short-term student arrivals excluded from the ABS’s population data, and our ‘people growth’ measure (~2½% y/y, which includes the still improving trend in net tourist arrivals). Both show the recent sharp pick-up in ‘people on our shores’ – helped by a lower AUD – that continues to positively support activity.

“Positively support growth” should read ‘positively support growth in chosen sectors while damaging it in others with a net result over time of a falling standard of living’.