US M&A signals business cycle aging

Friday, 29 July 2016

From Moody’s today:

Pricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle

The tendency to extrapolate the latest sequential change into the start of a new trend is the mark of a rank amateur prognosticator. Though real GDP’s annualized quarterly increase is expected to rise from Q1-2016’s 1.1% to 2.6% for Q2-2016, the latter is not necessarily the sign of things to come.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.